7th May 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- Daily charts for all 3 indexes are showing short term weakness. Should expect at least short term correction. Long term trend is still healthy. -- GLD and SLV seems to indicate downturn already. -- FXI is still weak, price still not able to overtake its resistance line. -- USO suddenly got hit and price fall below its monthly 20MA line. -- UNG shows some color this time. -- Copper has shown weakness again. -- Baltic index is still improving, but many shipping stocks are making correction from their previous big rally. -- Almost all sectors are falling out of its trend line or its 50MA lines. -- VXX completed its double bottom. Quite dangerous for stock market.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. For entire April month, SPY is not able to break out the March high.

2. Long term wise, SPY is still healthy.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not much data in the pipeline at all for the entire next week.

2. All index technical charts should follow what it is suppose to do.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily VXX chart indicating that it has completed a double bottom formation which is bearish for the stock market.

2. Its 20MA line is still its resistance line.

3. All secondary indicators are starting to show strength.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Value of SPY has dropped below both its daily 20MA and 50MA lines. Value now sitting on the neckline support line.

2. All secondary indicators are not doing very well, pointing South.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term wish, DJIA is still healthy.

2. Weekly chart shows that it will most probably drop to its weekly 20MA support line again.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term wise, NASDAQ is still healthy.

2. Weekly and daily chart indicate that it has pretty high chances of dropping to 2900.
3. All secondary indicators are going South.
4. Value has dropped below its daily 20MA and 50MA again and now sitting on the neckline support line.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP movement is still stuck between its triangle formation. Uptrend is still intact. However, all secondary indicators are showing weakness.
2. Be careful, UUP movement is going to affect my intention to short GLD and SLV.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Almost all sectors are falling out of its trend line or its 50MA lines.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Copper has again show weakness. Price has dropped below trend line and its weekly 20MA line again. All secondary indicators are not making much improvement too.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. All the secondary indictors for GLD in the weekly and monthly charts are showing more and more downward movement.

2. SLV weekly chart has again dropped through its support trend line at $29.00 and also its weekly 100MA line. All secondary indicators are also moving more and more downward.

3. It is time to short GLD and SLV. Watch out for a good entry.

4. However, watch out for UUP movement.

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Natural gas has shown some color this time. I was late to catch it.

2. Price has again punched through the 20MA line, but face resistance from 50MA line.

3. Watch closely and look for good entry.

4. USO has dropped below its long term monthly 20MA line.

5. USO intraday chart shows a pretty drastic drop.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI shows that it has not been able to take out the resistance line.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Shipment index is still going up. Impressive!

2. Be careful, many shipment stocks actually making correction.