29th Feb 2012 – Adieu AVEO

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
		13.10		14.10

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Short / Cover:

 

1. Intraday chart shows that it is under the pressure of both the 20MA and 50MA lines. The uptrend line is also broken.

2. Daily chart shows that the price is under the pressure of 20MA lines. All other MA lines are also heading down fast.

3. Weekly chart shows that the price is now within a very tight range ($13.00 ~ $14.00). It is now also under the pressure of 100MA line.

4. Monthly chart shows that it has come to the support line of $13.00. Expect to have more downturn with the bearish Harami monthly candle in Jan and with the pressure of monthly 20MA line. Monthly MACD pointing toward more downtrend.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Quarterly announcement just completed.
2. Be careful. Seldom trade healthcare stock. Healthcare stock always have surprises.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

25th Feb 2012 – Do I get discount buying in GRouPoN?

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
19.60				18.20

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Short / Cover:

 

1. Quarterly earning already out. It took a dip from its previous good rally.
2. Daily chart shows that it is resting at the tip of the triangle formation.
3. Intraday chart shows that it has formed a double bottom.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. $19.00 is actually the BEST entry point which I don't have gut to get in.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

25th Feb 2012 – CYOU at the top !

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
26.50				24.60

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Short / Cover:

 

1. It has made quarterly announcement early Feb. Price took a dip from its previous good rally and now it stabilize and start to follow the movement of 20MA line.

2. Intraday chart shows tht price seems to have support at $25.20.
3. Long term chart shows that price has managed to get on top of resistance line.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Always wait for the price to come back to the MA line. Don't chase the train!

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

25th Feb 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- DJIA has managed to take out its May 2011 high. Now SPY is the only index that is still challenging its May 2011 high. All 3 indexes have very healthy long term and short term charts. -- VXX daily chart came to a daily double bottom pattern. Pay attention to it. Long term VXX chart is also coming to a multiple bottom formation. Pay more attention to this multiple bottom long term formation. -- UUP still shows that it is still in the downtrend path. -- All sectors are showing healthy chart development. -- GLD and SLV both had good and strong rally last week. -- FXI is cautiously optimistic approaching its long term 20MA line. Same apply to the copper chart. -- Shipment baltic chart is still extremely weak. Most shipping stocks are making correction after a strong rally last week. -- The rally is USO is not a good thing for the market since it is driven more by the Iran issue than because of improvement in economy.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term SPY chart looking good and healthy.
2. Bull market continues.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not much data will be out next week except GDP. Volatility should not be a big concern.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. A short term daily double bottom for VXX is observed.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily SPY chart shows that it is still challenging its previous May 2011 top.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily DJIA chart successfully overtake the previous May 2011 high. This is a very bullish signal.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term NASDAQ chart shows very healthy and bullish trend.

2. It is still the leading index among the 3 indexes.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. As expected, UUP is still under the pressure of its long term 20MA line pressure. Continue its slide.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. All sectors are in nice and healthy uptrend.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Copper long term chart still under the pressure of the 20MA line. However, the direction is still in the uptrend. This should be a good indicator for the market.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Both GLD and SLV has some fantastic rally last week.

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The Iran issue is creating panic in oil price.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term FXI still under the pressure of its 20MA line. However, its direction is still in the uptrend. The chart is pretty similar to the long term chart of copper.
2. Cautiously Optimistic could be a better description.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Shipping Baltic index is still very weak.

2. All the shipping stocks are making correction after so much of big run past week.

19th Feb 2012 – May Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- The downgrades of Spain, Italy and etc by Moody seems to be not effective at all to create a bear market. -- Every time after a down day, it follow by another big up day the next day. This is pretty bullish sign. -- Greece headlines will still return in the next couple of days. -- Daily VXX is still sitting on the daily 20MA line. This is a threat to the market. -- Daily NASDAQ chart has overtake the previous May 2011 top. DJIA is now challenging the May 2011 top again. Now SPY is going to challenge the May 2011 also. This is a very bullish sign. -- All sectors are still healthy and up trend is still intact. -- Shipping stocks are all doing the magic wonder, shooting to the sky. -- Natural gas UNG seem to bottom up. -- UUP is still under the control of long term 20MA line.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term monthly SPY chart shows that SPY is still strong and healthy.
2. Volume is residing. Will this be a good news or not?

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not much data is expected next week. Volatility should be lower compare to last week.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The trend line has successfully predicted the volatility last week.
2. Its value is now sitting on the 20MA line. It is still a big threat to the market rally.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily SPY chart shows that it will challenge the May 2011 top with the 20MA line as a support.
2. Since NASDAQ has overtake the May 2011 top and DJIA is again challenging the May 2011 top, this is a very bullish sign to the market. Should be able to help SPY to achieve the same objective too.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term DJIA chart is still strong and healthy.
2. Value still staying about the resistance trend line in the monthly chart.
3. Daily chart shows that it is again challenging the May 2011 high again with the 20MA line moving upward as support line. This is quite bullish.
4. However, secondary indicators such as MACD are starting to point towards slow down.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term NASDAQ chart is still strong and healthy.
2. Value still staying above the support trend line at the monthly chart.
3. Daily chart shows that the value has exceeded the May 2011 high. This is very bullish.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term UUP chart is still under the control of 20MA line. Still staying under the long term down trend.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. All sectors still behave in a healthy and bullish manner.
2. Utility is a bit weaker, but that is the norm trend in a bull market. Isn't it?

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term copper chart is still under the control of 20MA line. However, up trend is still in progress even though it is slow and not obvious.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term GLD chart still show weakness. Price is still under the control of the down trend line.
2. Expect the price to probably dropped and touch the long term uptrend line before rebound.
3. GLD MACD seems to start a bearish cross.
4. Monthly SLV chart shows the down trend much clearer. SLV price is still under the pressure of the down trend line.
5. Bearish cross of MACD in SLV is much clearly seen; however, the 20MA will act as the support line.

 

Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Petrol is still staying on top of the long term 20MA line.
2. Current upward movement of USO is driven by the issue from the middle east.
3. Natural Gas UNG seems to establish a good bottom.
4. After 3 and a half months, this is the first time UNG managed to get on top of 20MA line.
5. Anybody who has interest to go long in UNG should monitor closely for good entry.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI has came out of the triangle formation. Currently challenging the long term 20MA line.
2. This should be a bullish indicator.
3. If it manage to overtake the long term 20MA line, more upward move will follow.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. As I mentioned last week. Shipping stocks have started to turned around. If you checked them out, they have rallied extremely STRONG!
2. I was RIGHT, but again, I did not take the position. Big mistake for a trader.