28th Feb 2011 – Pattern Study - F

Ticker:

 

1. F

 

Topic:

 

1. Previous resistance is current support.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Always find out where was the previous strong resistance line is because once it is crossed it is now the strong support line.
2. In this case F has a strong support line at $14.50 and furthermore it came with a trend line support.
3. Just kick yourself if you miss the entry.

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

28th Feb 2011 – China Fire & Security Inc. is on FIRE

Ticker:

 

1. CFSG

 

Topic:

 

1. China Fire & Security is on FIRE !!!

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. When you get into the multiple bottom, set a appropriate stop loss and obey the rule. The rebound might be very short life and the drop can be bad.
2. If multiple bottom rebound failed the MA line, get ready to exit at all cost.

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

27th Feb 2011 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (1 month)
-- SPY and NASDAQ have shown strong rebound. -- DJIA has shown rebound even though its daily chart still under the 20MA line. -- All 3 indexes still stay above its uptrend lines. -- All sectors have shown rebound on their 50MA lines. XLE goes even much higher. -- Not much economy data coming week. -- Libya problem will only benefit USA.	-- FXI daily chart still in the downtrend. -- FXI weekly chart shows a very critical point now and downward thrust is more likely. -- 20MA line is acting more like a resistance line for DJIA now. -- After about 4 months time, this is the first time VXX daily chart poke through the 50MA line and came back. -- UUP is extremely close to the multiple bottom line.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not much economy data is expected coming week, except on Thursday and Friday.
2. Expect the current index rebound to continue in coming week.
3. Now only depend on the Libya situation, but then again, the stock marker has basically digested that. Don't think that Libya situation is going to hurt the market anymore.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. The stable down of VXX is actually expected.
2. However, watch out when it comes to the 20MA line. If it is quite stable at 20MA line, market might be in danger.
3. This is the first time it poke through the 50MA line after such a long time. This might be a hint for the BULL.
4. High volume and upward MACD on the weekly chart shows that a change of direction might be in place soon.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY daily and weekly char all looks fine and intact.
2. MA lines and trend lines are not broken.
3. MCD and RSI indicator are all in uptrend.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. DJIA chart is not as healthy as SPY. It is retesting the 20MA line which now act as resistance.
2. Weekly chart is still intact and healthy. Not a time to get panic yet.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. NASDAQ rebound strongly. Good positive sign.
2. MA lines and trend lines are again intact and healthy both for daily and weekly charts

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. The retreat of UUP justify for the rebound of indexes.
2. However, watch out closely on the point 22.00 at UUP weekly chart. See where it is heading.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. All sectors rebound at 50MA line. A very healthy correction indeed.
2. XLE goes even higher due to instability of middle east.

 

GLD, SLV, Natural Gas and UUP charts:

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD and SLV seems to be at the correction point.
2. UNG started to rebound.
3. USO seems to be at correction point as well. Expect middle east problem to get "resolved" soon.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily FXI chart is still at the down trend channel and still intact.
2. However, weekly chart indicated that it is at a critical junction. Downward trust seems to be more likely supported by the MACD, TMF, . This can be a threat to the world indexes.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. No improvement in shipping index.
2. Don’t go neat the shipping stock yet.

25th Feb 2011 – Pattern Study - CROX

Ticker:

 

1. CROX

 

Topic:

 

1. When flood of blood and fear subsides, the CROXs emerge.

 

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. The power of trend line and 20MA line.
2. The island reversal that lead to shorting opportunity and then a rebound on the 100MA line that lead to Long opportunity.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

25th Feb 2011 – Another new kids on the block - DEXO

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
6.20				5.35

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. A very nice double bottom weekly chart with sign of live after the second bottom.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Sometime it is good to set the expectation much lower when the indexes are very weak.
2. I think it just announce a quarter report and I was totally not aware.
1. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Dex-One-Corporation-Reports-bw-3030619024.html?x=0&.v=1

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

23rd Feb 2011 – When AONE is no longer number ONE, just run…

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	9.61			9.61		2 weeks

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Stop loss hit. Market correction was pretty bad.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. The beauty of stop loss save me some $$$.
2. The drop was pretty bad indeed ---- 6%.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

23rd Feb 2011 – My Analysis – Special Review

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

-- Overall after such a big drop over the world, I am still bullish and this might be another entry opportunity. -- Oil up, silver rally, Gold rush up. -- Watch out for the indexes reaction tonight. It will tell you whether you should run or stay. -- Again, the stock market don't really care about Libya. You saw it happened to Egypt just days ago.

 

What happened:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The riot in the Libya and the downgrade of Japan by Moody.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

2. There were similar pattern like this before. So is this just another spike that will die off quick?

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Up trend line and the 20MA line are still intact. Don't get too emotional yet.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. DJIA looks just fine. Watch for rebound tonight. If that happen, that will be a +ve sign for the market.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. 20MA line broken in the daily chart, but up trend line is still intact.
2. A double top correction for NASDAQ.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. China stock looks a bit at dangerous zone. Follow closely with FXI because it can be a leading indicator of what to come next.

22nd Feb 2011 – Pattern Study - F, FFIV, AMZN, AZO, TGA

Ticker:

 

1. F, FFIV, AMZN, AZO,TGA

 

Topic:

 

1. SHORTs that I "knew", but not taken at all.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. These are the profitable SHORT candidate that I was watching but without action taken. Those points that I pointed out are the points that I had in mind to place my SHORT.
2. You have to be confident with your pattern recognition and take the shot. Set the stop loss and let it play out.

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

21st Feb 2011 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (6 months)
-- Watch out for the VXX and UUP chart. They started to show sign that will rock the indexes. -- Coming week is data heavy week. -- There is no sign on DJIA, SPY and NASDAQ that indicate weakness. -- Weekly chart of indexes show no barrier in the short term. -- FXI down trend is still intact.	--

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. A pretty heavy data week, especially on Thurs and Friday.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

2. There is sign up VXX picking up to near the 20MA line.
3. Not a very healthy sign for the bull,  but then need confirmation.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. No sign up weakness yet.
2. Weekly chart shows no barrier to stop the advancement of SPY.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Just unstoppable.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Same! Bull Bull Bull !!!!!

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Watch out! UUP is coming closer and closer to the multiple bottom line.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. All sectors show extended bull run. No sign of weakness. Market look pretty healthy.

 

GLD, SLV, Natural Gas and UUP charts:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FCG should be the one to follow, not UNG.
2. GLD and SLV are on the bull run again.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI down trend is still intact. Not broken yet.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

-NA-

 

Input:

 

1. -NA-