30th Nov 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

-- After one week totally off from the market, it is kind of hard to get myself back in!

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- Market reached technical rebound point for all 3 indexes. -- Market may still be very volatile this week with many data in the pipeline. Bear will not give up so soon too. -- VXX still has strong 76MA and 18MA lines. -- All 3 indexes has broken all the MA lines on their daily chart last week. This will take them some time to recover. However, take note that the volume is not that significant. -- All sectors have also reach the technical rebound points. -- Baltic shipping index is painting a nice picture of uptrend. -- Long term SPY chart is not looking good.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term SPY chart is painting a confusing picture.
2. For the month of Oct, it is able to take over the 20MA line and the resistant trend line and form a bullish engulfing pattern.
3. The start of Nov has brought it back down to below 20MA line and the trend line.
4. MACD bearish divergence is getting more obvious. This is definitely not good for long term bull.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Can be another volatile week looking at the number of data coming out.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. VXX could be just taking a short break on its advance. Now resting on its 76MA line.
2. 18MA line is coming up as support line.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. From the daily chart, it is obvious that rebound is expected at 116.00.
2. 76MA line is still acting as resistance line. Similar to all the MA lines.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The dropping volume is not significant. Does that mean traders have not thrown in their towel yet?

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The dropping volume again is not significant.
2. 123MA line is acting as support, but the rest of MA are resistance lines.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP hit resistance at 76MA line. 18MA and 47MA line is acting as support.
2. Looks like bottom has formed for UUP which is definitely not a good news for the market.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Most sectors are actually expecting rebound at their trend line.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to all 3 indexes.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD and SLV also reach technical rebound points.

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Petrol still remain at its uptrend even the market is sluggish for past week.
2. UNG is really a problem.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to all 3 indexes, FXI got hit pretty bad and broke all MA lines. Recovery will take time.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The shipping index is painting a very positive picture here.
2. Does this mean we are going to see a long term bull market in the near future?!

28th Nov 2011–Stockaki Indicator

I am back, but looks like my travelling South has done quite a damage to the market.

Looks like the Stockaki Indicator is working pretty well.

Well, it is time to get myself back to the market in the next few days. It has been a good relaxing week away from market.

16th Nov 2011–Travelling South !!!

I will be travelling down South to home town.

Good luck to you all in the stock market.

14th Nov 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- All3 indexes are still healthy. -- Will Italy run into problem. Na… I don't think so. They have a Monti GOD! -- The threat from UUP is still quite limited. -- Watch out for VXX. Make sure it is not going to take out the resistance level of 76MA line. -- All sectors are coming to their resistance trend line. Correction is expected. -- Heavy data coming out. Expect volatility. -- Copper is still weak but USO is pretty strong. Painting a confusing picture.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY is still healthy and strong.
2. Still above its 20MA line.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Quite a number of data coming out next week on Tuesday, Wed and Thursday.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. VXX is struggling in between the 18MA and 76MA lines.
2. MACD is now touching each other.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY still remain healthy. Long term chart facing resistance at 47MA line.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily chart of DJIA showing it has reach the short term resistance of the trend line. Expect it to retrace before it is able to advance again.
2. Weekly chart shows that it is still healthy. It has taken the 12000 line again.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily chart shows that NASDAQ is still healthy.
2. Weekly chart shows that it is facing resistance at 47MA line.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP is still struggling in between 18MA and 47MA lines.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. All sectors coming to the resistance of trend lines. Watch out for retracement or corrections.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily Copper chart show weakness.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD and SLV are still strong and rallying.

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Pretty big advancement of USO.
2. Natural gas is another step closer to hell.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is still healthy. Facing resistance from 123MA line.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Slight rebound on Baltic index.

09th Nov 2011–The Sun is brighter in Canada.

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
3.05				2.86

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Intraday chart shows that multiple day multiple bottom is formed.
2. Daily chart shows that multiple bottom formed for about 1 and a half month.
3. Long term weekly chart shows tripple bottom formed within 3 plus years.
4. Long term monthly chart shows that it has came back to the lowest point of March 2009.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. This is a dangerous and tough trade. Start small.
2. Earning might be on the way, watch out!

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

09th Nov 2011–Don’t hold your coffee too long.

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	10.50				Profit	4 days

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Stop loss triggered.
2. The drop was pretty bad and sudden. Punched through both intraday 18MA and 47MA lines.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. A bigger portion of gain was gone is seconds.
2. Lock in my gain first. Think and talk later.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart