20th Nov 2010 – Pattern Study on UUP

Ticker:

 

1. UUP

 

Topic:

 

1. Pay attention to this guy - especially NOW.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. The double bottom formation has already warn you that the crash will come last week. I did not pay attention to it at all.
2. The double bottom was obvious.
3. Watch out the daily chart when the 20MA line comes in and give support to the UUP.
4. I could have just got in UUP at $22.00. Everything was so obvious.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

20th Nov 2010 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (6 months)
-- This short term bull is kind of weak now. -- A burst in the UUP can kill this Bull right in the head.	-- Major support line is not broken yet even though they are penetrated and came back.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Heavy data on Tuesday and Wednesday
2. Holiday on Thursday and half day session on Friday. Could bring some volatility.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. The VXX daily chart shows that it has come to the bottom again. This can be a double-edge sword.
2. WATCH OUT!!!

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Intraday SPY chart broke through the trend line and also its 20MA and 50MA line, which gives confident on the up trend.
2. Daily chart SPY shows that it has finally come on top of 20MA line. However it is still beneath the thick blue trend line.
3. Weekly chart shows that it is still able to stay on top of 200MA line even though it poke through it at the beginning of the week.
4. I consider this indication as "Bull is still intact".

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Intraday DJIA chart broke through the trend line and also its 20MA and 50MA line, which gives confident on the up trend like SPY.
2. Daily DJIA chart shows that it is still beneath 20MA line. So be CAREFULL on this.
3. Weekly chart shows that it had touched the 200MA line and rebound back. Hope that this is a healthy sign for a much stronger BULL coming in the pipeline.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Intraday NASDAQ chart shows that is hs penetrated the 20MA and 50MA line.
2. Daily NASDAQ chart shows that it is still beneath the 20MA line. WATCH OUT!!!
3. Weekly NASDAQ chart shows that it is still beneath the April high.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Hope that the 20MA and 50MA lines will keep the intraday chart up UUP lower.
2. On daily chart it is sitting on the trend line. Watch out for the support coming in from the 20MA line. That might lift the USD$$$.
3. I don't understand why after QE2, UUP reverse up instead. Is it just because of China raise interest rate?
4. Weekly chart shows that UUP is still in bullish mode. Pay close attention to this guy. This is not good for stock.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Most of them rebound at the 50MA line.

 

GLD, SLV and UUP charts:

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD rebound at the 50MA line just like most sectors.
2. USO was hit badly just in one week time. This might be some kind of indicator what is going to come next. Anyway, it is always a reverse of UUP.
3. UNG is getting interesting again.
4. UUP is the one to really watch for.

18th Nov 2010 – Pattern Study on DJIA

Ticker:

1. DJIA

Topic:

1. Is the BULL run on March 2009 Obvious?

Lesson Learnt:

1. There is absolutely no reason to miss the March 2009 BULL run. No reason at all.
2. The first few Bullish Harami formation are the killers. They were fake bullish formation where their line of support are finally penetrated downwards.
3. First Bullish Harami on March 2009 might makes you think that it is another fake formation. However, one week later another bullish Harami formation appear again. That should give the first confirmation. This confirmation also protrude the trend line at the same time. In this case investors have to jump in and should not wait for a retracement. The retracement may not come because everybody has gone through a long Bear market and now everybody are rushing in.
4. Weeks later 20MA line was protrude, serve as another confirmation again.
5. Months later, it retraced back to 20MA line which serve as a good adding point if you already bought in previously. If you have not, it is time to get in NOW.
6. A bounce on the 20MA line gives a very strong confirmation again.
7. Within that week, that bounce penetrate 50MA line - What's more confirmation that you need?

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

18th Nov 2010 – Pattern Study on FAS

Ticker:

1. FAS

Topic:

1. Buying FAS at its own trend line and DJIA's trend line and 50MA line.

Lesson Learnt:

1. It should rebound at strong trend line and MA line.
2. 'Good News' tend to follow after that.
3. Risk is always there, so be careful.

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

18th Nov 2010 – I want to be a SUPER TRADER!

18th Nov 2010 – Was the CRASH of 12th – 17th Nov obvious?

Ticker:

1. DJIA, SP500, NASDAQ

Topic:

1. Is the crash of 12th - 17th Nov obvious?

Lesson Learnt:

1. The crash was very obvious.
2. Not catching it is my STUPIDITY. No one to blame.
3. China crash on 12 Nov is the 1st warning.
4. High -ve volume day last week 2nd warning that people are letting go.
5. A broke at 11,200 line was the 3rd warning.
6. A broke at the two trend lines 4th warning.

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

17th Nov 2010 – Something is really Wrong!

Something is really WRONG with me!

I look at the index plunge and I did not take advantage at all.

As long as I did not find out WHY I am not doing what I am suppose to be doing, I don’t think I will ever success as a trader.

9th Nov 2010 – Twitter and Stock.

What a relationship! Interesting.

8th Nov 2010 – SHORTIE Mind Set.

Going SHORT is much more difficult and dangerous then going long.

My problem when come to SHORT

 

Item	Attitude
1	CONSOLIDATION <> WEAKNESS -- Don't confuse between consolidation and weakness. -- Below 50MA line has more weakness. -- Breaking pattern such as Head-n-Shoulder will help to increase probability of success. -- Above 50MA line tends to consolidate.
2	MIND SET CHANGE -- If stock reverse and become strong, consider to go long.
3	BIG PICTURE IN MIND -- When indexes are bullish. Try not to do shorting without very good reasons.
4	HIGH GO HIGHER -- Don't short just because it is high. -- The high will tend to go higher.
5	DON'T GO AGAINST FASHION -- Shorting stock like AAPL GOOG when its product is still in fashion is like suicide. -- Should always go long for fashion stock until downturn confirmed.

8th Nov 2010 – My attitude is the problem

It is my ATTITUDE that stop me from being a SUCCESS trader!!! It is time to change.

 

I am not a trader before I got all these:

 

Item	Attitude
1	DON'T COMPARE -- Don't compare your performance with your peers. -- You are fighting with the whole world. If you want to compare, it will be endless.
2	OPPORTUNITY -- Somehow, sometimes we still miss the opportunity even though it is obvious. -- Learn to SEE  opportunity and learn how to CATCH them right on time. -- As long as there is market, there is opportunity, either long or short.
3	FACE THE FACT -- As a trader, you have to face the reality when you made a mistake.
4	PATIENCE -- Learn to wait for the prey to come to your attack line.
5	PAIN THRESHOLD -- Know your pain threshold level before entry. -- Adjust line of attack with pain threshold line for maximum safety.
6	SERIOUS BUSINESS -- You are here for business, not fun or excitement.
7	SLIM APPETITE -- Don’t chew what you cannot swallow. -- Too many tickers will bury you alive.
8	TREND IS YOUR FRIEND -- Follow what the trend tells you.
9	NO CRYSTAL BALL -- Don't predict pivot point. -- See --> Confirmed --> Act

6th Oct 2010 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (6 months)
-- The BEAR is DEAD!

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

1. No much even this coming week. Looks like there is nothing that will stop the bull at all.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

1. Market is just too bullish.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

1. Basically all lines have been broken. Nothing seems to block the index anymore.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

1. Unstoppable!

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

1. Same

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

1. The higher will go higher.

 

GLD, SLV and UUP charts:

 

 

Input:

1. Gold and Oil are unstoppable.

3rd Nov 2010 – Acidic Soda… JSDA

Input:

 

1. This example shows a BAD example of stop loss management.
2. Stock came back stink me and pops back up.
3. Earning calls on 11th Nov, should I get it back??!!

 

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Stop loss hit.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. I was too confident that this stock will not come that close.
2. I need to improve a lot on stop loss management.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

3rd Nov 2010 – My car battery leaks…

Input:

 

1. This is a GOOD example of my good control in stop loss.

 

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses
	9.50

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Stop loss was hit at $9.50
2. Intraday chart seems to indicate a break of all the lines that I had. Think NO MORE!
3. Daily chart also shows a lot of weakness. Looks like the breakout of the triangle cannot sustain.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Good decision as far as NOW is concerned.
2. We will get it back later (maybe)...

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart