7th Feb 2011 – My Analysis

Sorry for not posting anything for the entire last week. I was on Chinese New Year holiday and have totally no access line to the internet.

***Trust me!!! It is painful without internet connection***

 

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (6 months)
-- Company earning still encouraging. -- Not much economy activity this week. -- All the "correction" so far has been viewed as more chance to get in. -- Do you really think that America stock market cares about Egypt in the short run?! -- VXX chart dip lower again. -- All sectors charts still remain healthy.	-- Instability in Egypt has caused oil to surge. -- UUP is coming to the multiple bottom formation. -- FXI is still in down trend

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Do not expect much volatility this week.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Intraday VXX chart dip lower again. Looks like there is no end in sight yet.
2. Last week "interesting spike" could have cheated many.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The BEAR trap last week could have caught many by surprise.
2. Be very careful of this kind of BEAT trap.
3. Always get confirmation from DJIA and NASDAQ.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. You might get panicked by the "correction" of SPY, but DJIA tells us that everything should be alright.
2. Always refer to the UUP chart also.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The "correction" could have been triggered by NASDAQ when it came up from bottom to touch the trend line last Friday (before Chinese New Year).

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Watch out for a "touch down" at weekly UUP chart at $22.00 which might give a correction to the market.
2. However, this might take a week or more.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. All sectors still look healthy. Only XLP is a  bit weaker.

 

GLD, SLV and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD down trend from head-n-shoulder formation still remain.
2. SLV came poke through the down trend line and came back up the 20MA and 50MA lines. Looks bullish, but might just be forming a right shoulder. RSI still weak.
3. UNG is coming back to the up trend line again. Looks good for a long entry if you have the patient and $$$.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is still intact at the down trend.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weak… weak… weak !!!