30th Nov 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

-- After one week totally off from the market, it is kind of hard to get myself back in!

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- Market reached technical rebound point for all 3 indexes. -- Market may still be very volatile this week with many data in the pipeline. Bear will not give up so soon too. -- VXX still has strong 76MA and 18MA lines. -- All 3 indexes has broken all the MA lines on their daily chart last week. This will take them some time to recover. However, take note that the volume is not that significant. -- All sectors have also reach the technical rebound points. -- Baltic shipping index is painting a nice picture of uptrend. -- Long term SPY chart is not looking good.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term SPY chart is painting a confusing picture.
2. For the month of Oct, it is able to take over the 20MA line and the resistant trend line and form a bullish engulfing pattern.
3. The start of Nov has brought it back down to below 20MA line and the trend line.
4. MACD bearish divergence is getting more obvious. This is definitely not good for long term bull.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Can be another volatile week looking at the number of data coming out.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. VXX could be just taking a short break on its advance. Now resting on its 76MA line.
2. 18MA line is coming up as support line.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. From the daily chart, it is obvious that rebound is expected at 116.00.
2. 76MA line is still acting as resistance line. Similar to all the MA lines.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The dropping volume is not significant. Does that mean traders have not thrown in their towel yet?

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The dropping volume again is not significant.
2. 123MA line is acting as support, but the rest of MA are resistance lines.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP hit resistance at 76MA line. 18MA and 47MA line is acting as support.
2. Looks like bottom has formed for UUP which is definitely not a good news for the market.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Most sectors are actually expecting rebound at their trend line.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to all 3 indexes.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD and SLV also reach technical rebound points.

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Petrol still remain at its uptrend even the market is sluggish for past week.
2. UNG is really a problem.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to all 3 indexes, FXI got hit pretty bad and broke all MA lines. Recovery will take time.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The shipping index is painting a very positive picture here.
2. Does this mean we are going to see a long term bull market in the near future?!