17th Jan 2011 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (6 months)
-- Volatility shows no bottom in sight at all. -- Indexes tends to recover back when bad news came out and rally whenever there is any slight good or ok news. -- Bank stocks rally like crazy. -- The only worry now is that GLD has started its downtrend which might bring UUP to uptrend and that might pause the stock market. Let's see!	-- SUPERBULLS. -- Big resistance broken again, now become support. -- ALL ETFs are strong, Financial and Industrial ETF are extremely bullish. Totally no weakness in sight.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not much volatility except Thursday.
2. Remember, the trend now is bad news is consider as good news also.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. VXX chart basically has NO BOTTOM insight.
2. Don't touch the short side. It is just too damn dangerous.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. We are in some kind of SUPER BULL stage.
2. No matter what news is out on CNBC, Bull take charge.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Same, resistance line broken.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Same, resistance line broken.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Look at how the UUP was trashed and compare to how the stock market rally.
2. Strongly believe that UUP and stock market are still reversely related.
3. Watch closely how UUP play out at the lower trend line.
4. Watch carefully how the downtrend of GLD is going to affect this UUP trend.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. NO weakness shown at all in all ETF. What a bull market.
2. Financial and Industrial sectors are really outperforming.

 

GLD, SLV and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD is behaving exactly like what I have expected even though I have no $$ to short it. Downtrend is confirmed.
2. This means that UUP weakness could be short term. Be careful!
3. SLV also topped up. MACE and RSI added confirmation on this.
4. Natural Gas looks safe for LONG entry, if and only if I got $$$. It has broken the trend line and that line is now acting as support.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. China is back in up trend again.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. No sign of recovery in shipment Baltic Dry Index.
2. It reflect clearly in all the shipment stock like FREE, SHIP, EGLE, OCNF….