9th July 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Long term (1 month)

-- All indexes have come to a long term multiple top formation. However, if all indexes broke up from their resistance lines, then we are going to have a very strong BULL. -- All indexes went up for the past weeks too fast and the volume is not that encouraging. -- Daily SPY chart seems to form an isolation island formation (BEARISH). -- UUP is at a critical stage with a very upside volume on May. Possibility of UUP going higher is quite high and that will be a bad news for the stock market. -- VXX is at it lowest low again. Intraday chart shows that it is at a critical junction. -- USO is back to its downtrend again after a fake breakout. -- FXI is still below its uptrend line.

-- Except that all indexes break up from all their multiple top formation, else we could be reaching a long term top which can be dangerous. -- Baltic shows a bit of uptick, but not significant enough. Most shipping stocks are still been beaten down to earth.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Heavy data week next week. CPI, PPI and Jobless claim all will be out.
2. Ben speaks?? What can he do??

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. VXX continue to make lower low. This is an insane market.
2. However, intraday VXX chart shows that it is at a critical junction.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Look at the long term weekly chart, you will find that it is again following text book.
2. A very possible of isolation formation (BEARISH) in SPY daily chart.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. It is a very fantastic long term DJIA chart. Everything just follow text book.
2. Expecting at least a healthy correction at this point.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. It look like a triple top formation. The up is too quick too fast.
2. Expecting a healthy correction from here.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP is at a critical stage. A turn to the upside is quite likely because of its upside volume on month of may.
2. This can be a bad news for stock market.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Many sectors reached their multiple top, so correction is not a surprise.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Looks like GLD is still in its uptrend. GLL is broken down from its uptrend line again.
2. Silver is now in a tight range play and approaching the 20MA line which now acts as resistance line. Low volume may not be able to sustain its up move. A chance to short silver could be very near now.
3. Looks like the down trend of USO is still intact. That sounds like a bad news for the economy growth.
4. With the USO in the downtrend, UNG won't be in much of a good shape.
5. UNG is doing a multiple bottom formation for its long term chart, but it looks weak rather than an opportunity. All its MA lines are acting as resistance line.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is sitting on its 100MA and 200MA lines which it previously punch through downward.
2. The long term FXI chart shows that the downtrend is still intact.
3. MACD shows that it has not been able to go up from its 0 line for one and a half year already.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Don’t rush into shipping stock yet. Many of them are almost dead.