3rd Oct 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (1 month)
-- Don't see any reason to call for bull at all. -- The European problem is getting worse. -- All newsletter that I read is indicating all advisors are at Bear camp.	-- VXX has legs. -- All sectors charts are at the Grand Canyon ' cliff. They are about to fall and fall hard. -- All 3 indexes show more lower low. More chances of breakdown from the support line than a rebound. -- UUP MACD shows that more uptrend is on the way. -- Copper is all time low and expect to drop even more from here.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not much data coming out.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. VXX's rally has legs.
2. OBV and MACD keep climbing. Weekly MACD already came out from zero line. This is bad for the stock market.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Looks like we have more lower low in this range-bound trading. Expect a break down soon through the support line.
2. Weekly MACD already below zero line. Daily MACD dipped down again after reaching near zero line.
3. Weekly chart shows that it is already 200MA line.
4. Daily chart MA lines all broken.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY, except that weekly chart still shows that it is sitting on the 200MA line.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY.
2. Daily and weekly charts shows that it has broken the trend line again and going South.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP MACD shows that more rally is on the way.
2. Strong volume support.
3. This is bad for stock market.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. All the sectors are at the edge of breakdown. In fact some have protrude the trend line support.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD, SLV and USO found temporary support. However, all their secondary indicators like MACD and OBV are showing more down trend ahead.
2. UNG just keep going South.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Can't see any support line for FXI at all.
2. Strong selling volume does indicate more down turn ahead.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Strong volume of selling for Copper shows very weak economy ahead.
2. Weekly MACD and OBV all dipped below zero line.
3. The economy is really bad.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. This is the only puzzle in the entire market. Shipment is UP !!??
2. Who want to explain this?