2nd April 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- VXX is still indicating that bull is still in charge. -- All 3 indexes are still healthy and moving in the positive direction. -- Shipping Baltic index is still in uptrend move. -- Long term GLD and SLV is still not showing any clear direction. -- All sectors charts are still healthy and mostly are still in the uptrend move, except the energy sector. -- Long term copper and USO are still in uptrend direction. -- China index FXI is the only index that has started to move in the downtrend direction. -- Natural gas is the ugliest of all. -- UUP chart is still in the downtrend and bounded by its 20MA line.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term monthly SPY chart is still healthy and in the uptrend.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not sure how the FOMC minutes will affect the market.

2. Data on Thursday and Friday should play bigger role.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term VXX chart shows that its value is still dropping and dropped passed the support line.
2. Weekly chart shows that it has dropped through the support line of 20.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily SPY chart indicating steady move in the upward direction with the 20MA line following through.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY, long term DJIA chart is still healthy and marching upwards.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY and DJIA, long term NASDAQ is healthy and still remain in uptrend.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term UUP chart shows that the downtrend is still intact and is now at a critical juncture.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Most sectors' uptrend are still intact.
2. XLB and XLU are moving sideways.
3. XLE is the only sector that is moving lower.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term JJC chart shows that it is still in uptrend, but is bounded by the 20MA line.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

Input:

 

1. No clear direction for both GLD and SLV yet.
2. Long term chart secondary indicators are moving in a bearish direction.

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term USO shows that it is still in uptrend.

2. Daily USO chart shows that all secondary indicators are getting much weaker and its value has dropped through the support line.

3. There is just no end insight for the ugly natural gas UNG.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term FXI chart shows how well it behave at the 20MA line.
2. Now it has started to broke the uptrend direction and started the downtrend.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Shipment index is still in positive trend.

2. Shipping stocks have also shown rebound activity.