15th May 2020 - Who you gonna trust?!

Pattern Name	Expectation	Reference
Bearish Engulfing	Down	https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bearish-engulfing-patterns-in-big-tech-stocks-and-indexes-raise-caution-flags-on-wall-street-2020-05-13?mod=home-page

My thought on this Pattern Study

• This site from MarketWatch is worth a read.
• Several interesting charts in there.

Intraday Chart

9th May 2020 - Elliot Wave or Idiot Wave (a wave to catch idiots)

Pattern Name	Expectation	Reference
Elliot Wave	A downturn after "b" wave	Page 208

My thought on this Pattern Study

• Should this be the famous Elliot Wave Theorem? I hope I am right.
• The "b" wave is very stubborn.
• Remember, whether it is Elliot Wave or not is not important. Believe what you see in front of you.

Daily Chart

Historical Chart

26th Apr 2020 - Journal

Ticker: DJIA

• Facing resistance at 50MA line.
• It has already dropped below and floating to the right side of the trend line.
• It might get ugly if it gets stressed down below the orange color horizontal line.
• MACD is indicating more downtrend then uptrend.

Chart

Ticker: ZM

• Looks like FB is not too happy ZM zooooooms up too fast too much.
• Is FB's Messenger Room going to crash Zoom? Maybe it will crash Cisco Webex before it crashes Zoom. Haha…
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97NiTS6N7eI
• Anyway, it is time to set a good stop loss for my current holding. Selling was double the volume.
• Technically, the chart looks pretty good. Without looking at the reason why it dropped on Friday, the chart looks like a very nice traceback for buyer who is late to get back in the game.

Chart

Ticker: TSLA

• This electric car looks pretty healthy so far.
• It is forming some kind of flag to decide on the next direction for coming week.
• Earning on 29th Apr, which might shock many, including me. How much gain am I willing to let go?

Chart

Ticker: BYND

• Time and effort is very important to profit from the market. Here is one good example. I was really running out of time to monitor my list and I have to "Work From Home" and "Work At Home" alternatively every day.
• Bought this stock and make some profit before. If I have managed to squeeze out some time to monitor him, I should have got back in.
• Earning on 5th May, pretty risky bet if I get in now.
• Fantastic chart, buying volume was so high.
• Strongly believe it will poke through the ceiling trend line by next week.

Chart

Ticker: USO

• Petroleum is getting very interesting.
• Is it a good time to get in? How much lower can it get?
• It has basically completed the 3 big dropping stages which always provide a high potential of bullish call for me. Maybe a small sum of testing could work out.

Chart

Ticker: MRNA

• This is yet another stock that I have to kick on myself.
• Again, time and effort is needed to make a profit. No easy money.
• Plenty of opportunities were totally missed.
• Earning on 7th May. It could be volatile. Keep an eye on it.

Chart

21st Apr 2020 - DOW or DOWN?!

Reason to Watch

• Dow is kind of heading different ways compare to my WAZE direction.

Lesson Learnt:

• Dow is breaking its famous "V" shape recovery.
• Is he trying to make a "W" shape?
• Time to probably get out and watch from the sideline if you have a long position.

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

27th Mar 2020 - Where are you gonna go baby?

Reason to Watch

• Try to figure out where it is going to go.

Lesson Learnt:

• See how beautiful those technical lines are? It just has to follow the guidance of those lines. The news is always not that important. Don't guess from the news, look at the chart, it will "tell" you.
• Watch out for the "calm before the storm".

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

25th Mar 2020 - Finding Nemo - Bottom of the Ocean.

Reason to Watch

• Finding the bottom.

Lesson Learnt:

• Stupid me for not shorting the market.
• The chart just simply follow the rule. The only thing is "do you dare to take it…?".
• Well, watch out for the small little ceiling.   ;-)

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

15th Mar 2020 - You want rebound? You got it!

Reason to Watch

• Watch for the direction.
• My good friend 财神爷 asked when to start invest, I told him I expected a short term rebound now.

Lesson Learnt:

• The rebound did break through the long term trend line. Very interesting.
• It now stays just above the MA line of 231.72.
• How long it is going to last?

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

29 Feb 2020 - Obedient DJIA chart pattern.

Reason to Watch

• Need to know when it will bounce back.

Lesson Learnt:

• See how well it obey all the trend lines?!
• Once we can spot the rebound, then we can get into those stocks that we wanted at a much cheaper price.

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

25th Feb 2020 - Let's go for a spin on DJIA Roller Coaster.

Reason to Watch

• Market dropped by > 3.5% yesterday and now it dropped by > 1%.

Lesson Learnt:

• Let's see it will stop at which line. Very interesting.

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

16th July 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- It is quite surprising that German has to give way to the rest of the European country to agree with their bond purchase. -- All 3 index charts have healthy long term charts, but all three of them are facing with their weekly 20MA line resistance. -- GLD and SLV is again coming down to their support line at their 20MA line or trendline. -- USO and JJC are still weak, but UUP and UNG react on uptrend. -- FXI is still showing more downtrend than uptrend. -- Shipment is still slowly in its uptick. -- All sectors are approaching their resistance lines. -- More scary economic data for the entire week. -- It is interesting that VXX keeps making new low. How low can it go some more?

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term SPY chart looks healthy.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Economic data coming out almost everyday. Looks like it is going to be a volatile week.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. VXX keeps making new low. Are we going towards a real big bull market?

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY has again came back up to its weekly 20MA line.

2. It may not be able to break this resistance line at this moment.

3. Friday's one night rally was big and interesting.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY, long term DJIA is still healthy, but weekly chart shows that temporary it may not have the power to overtake the weekly 20MA line resistance despite Friday's big rally.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY and DJIA both long and short term.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP uptrend still intact.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Many sectors are approaching their resistance line.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. JJC may not have reverse its downtrend. Secondary indicators are still weak.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD is sitting on its monthly 20MA line. All secondary indicators are showing more downtrend.
2. Similarly, SLV is showing bearish trend. All secondary indicators indicating more downtrend is in the pipeline. Price now siting on the trendline.

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. USO is still relatively weak.
2. UNG is still acting strong. Weekly chart shows that price is trying to break the resistance line of $20.00. All secondary indicators pointing for more upside movement. Volume is very encouraging.
3. UNG could have bottomed at $15.00.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is still weak. All secondary indicators are indicating more down trend is in the pipeline.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Uptrend is still intact.