16th July 2012 – The gas is on fire!

Buy $	Sell $	Short $	Cover $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
19.50				17.10

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Short / Cover:

 

1. UNG has formed a two bottom formation with the latest bottom higher than the first bottom.

2. Weekly price has overtake its weekly 20MA for the second time.

3. Price now challenging its $20.00 resistance line for the second time.

4. Weekly volume is impressive and all secondary indicators are pointing to more upward moves.

5. Daily chart shows that price has overtake all its MA lines except 200MA line.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. This has been a very hard to trade "toxic" gas. Be very careful.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

16th July 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- It is quite surprising that German has to give way to the rest of the European country to agree with their bond purchase. -- All 3 index charts have healthy long term charts, but all three of them are facing with their weekly 20MA line resistance. -- GLD and SLV is again coming down to their support line at their 20MA line or trendline. -- USO and JJC are still weak, but UUP and UNG react on uptrend. -- FXI is still showing more downtrend than uptrend. -- Shipment is still slowly in its uptick. -- All sectors are approaching their resistance lines. -- More scary economic data for the entire week. -- It is interesting that VXX keeps making new low. How low can it go some more?

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term SPY chart looks healthy.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Economic data coming out almost everyday. Looks like it is going to be a volatile week.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. VXX keeps making new low. Are we going towards a real big bull market?

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY has again came back up to its weekly 20MA line.

2. It may not be able to break this resistance line at this moment.

3. Friday's one night rally was big and interesting.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY, long term DJIA is still healthy, but weekly chart shows that temporary it may not have the power to overtake the weekly 20MA line resistance despite Friday's big rally.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY and DJIA both long and short term.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP uptrend still intact.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Many sectors are approaching their resistance line.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. JJC may not have reverse its downtrend. Secondary indicators are still weak.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD is sitting on its monthly 20MA line. All secondary indicators are showing more downtrend.
2. Similarly, SLV is showing bearish trend. All secondary indicators indicating more downtrend is in the pipeline. Price now siting on the trendline.

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. USO is still relatively weak.
2. UNG is still acting strong. Weekly chart shows that price is trying to break the resistance line of $20.00. All secondary indicators pointing for more upside movement. Volume is very encouraging.
3. UNG could have bottomed at $15.00.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is still weak. All secondary indicators are indicating more down trend is in the pipeline.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Uptrend is still intact.

25th June 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- It is interesting that market actually went crazy when I was not doing my homework for a month. -- China FXI is still very weak and might be getting weaker. -- All indexes clearly indicate strong resistance at their weekly 20MA lines and daily 100MA lines. -- VXX is now at a triple bottom situation. Volume is also getting higher. -- USO, GLD and SLV have came down to retest their trend line. Ben's announcement is also not encouraging to the Gold bugs. -- The only weird one is the natural gas UNG. It has poke up through its weekly 20MA line again. This could well be a buy signal. -- Thursday's jobless claim report can be very important to the market has mentioned by Ben the he will be watching job report very closely. -- UUP has retest its upper part of trendline and retraced temporary, -- Shipment index is again pointing downward. -- Most sectors are showing mid term downtrend is still intact. -- Expect the indexes to rebound back to maybe their daily chart 50MA line before another big drop.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Monthly chart shows that its 20MA line has been threaten once. Price rebound back above the 20MA line but not much.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Thursday data will be crucial.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly VXX chart is again all time low and came out with a triple bottom. This is dangerous.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Looking at the weekly and daily chart of SPY, one should not be surprised with the big drop on Thursday. Were you?      ;-)

2. A big resistance of 20MA line in the weekly chart and 100MA line in the daily chart has warned us very well.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY. Just that DJIA is slightly stronger and gave you an illusion that its daily chart's 100MA line has been taken over.

2. However, weekly chart has warned you that there is a big resistance line from the May'11 high.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY and DJIA, but NASDAQ is much weaker among thee three.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP might have started to establish a reverse of its downtrend.

2. Price has successful go above the monthly 20MA line. Will see how it comes back to the 20MA line.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Most sectors are still staying within the mid term downtrend with strong resistance from their 50MA lines.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Copper's downtrend continues. Price has again came down to test its trend line.

2. Monthly MACD is still pointing more downward potential is building up.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD has again broke down its monthly 20MA line. Monthly GLD chart shows that all secondary indicators are all going downward and weak.
2. SLV is even weaker. Came out with a multiple bottom. All secondary indicators are pointing more downward potential.

 

Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. USO is very weak too. A three year multiple bottom chart is now in front of us. Price is also below its monthly 20MA line.
2. UNG is the only one that is indicating something else. Good volume has started to come in and price has broken through the weekly 20MA line twice. A W bottom shape seems to be in the making.
3. UNG can be a very good long candidate.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. China is only showing more weakness. All secondary indicators continue their downward moves.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Shipment has again dropped below trend line and its 20MA line.

13th May 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- Quite a number of economy data in the pipeline next week. -- Daily VXX chart value still staying just on top of 20MA line. Secondary indicators also started pointing up. -- Weekly VXX 50MA line has flatten and its MACD is about to do a bullish cross. This can be bad for the bull. -- Copper is weak. Coming down to its second level of support. -- GLD and SLV has finally broke down from their triangle formation and trend line. Now reach their monthly chart support line. -- All 3 indexes now bouncing on their daily 100MA lines. -- All 3 indexes daily charts seems to indicate a break at the head-n-shoulder neckline. -- All sectors have broken their support lines, except the utility sector. This is the pattern in bear market, isn't it? -- FXI continue to be weak. -- Shipment index remain positive. -- UUP chart has broken upwards. -- Expect a temporary one week rebound at indexes daily 100MA lines.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. We have to treat the recent downturn as a correction so far. It has not breach the monthly 20MA line. However, the impact is pretty bad.

2. The value is also lower than its previous high in April 2011 which is not a good indication.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Quite a number of data coming out next week. Happy roller coaster!

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. MACD in weekly chart shows that it has potential to move up than down.

2. Weekly 50MA line is flattening.

3. Daily VXX chart shows that the price is able to stay within the 20MA line for the entire week. Secondary indicators are also starting to point upwards. This is going to be bad for stock market.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY value has broke down 20MA, 50MA lines and now bouncing on the 100MA line.

2. Its daily 20MA line is bearish crossing 50MA line.
3. All secondary indicators are daily SPY chart pointing downward.

4. Head-n-Shoulder neckline broken.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY, recent drop in market can only be considered as a correction in the monthly DJIA chart. 20MA line is still intact.
2. From daily chart, the support line is still intact. However, value has dropped below daily 20MA, 50MA and 100MA lines. All secondary indicators are also continuously pointing downward.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Head-n-Shoulder neckline at daily chart is broken. Value broke down from its daily 20MA and 50MA lines and is bouncing on 100MAline.

2. Monthly NASDAQ chart shows that value has come to the support line.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Monthly UUP chart shows that UUP finally broke upward.
2. Daily UUP chart shows that it penetrated the resistance of 20MA, 50MA and 100MA lines resistance in a short week.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. As shown, almost all sectors have broken down from their trend line, except the utility.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Copper is still weak. Now coming down to its second support line.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly GLD chart looks weak. It broke the triangle formation finally and it is going down. All secondary indicators are pointing downward.
2. However, monthly chart indicates that GLD price has came down and touch the monthly 20MA line for the first time after almost 3 years. MACD has came out with a bearish cross.
3. Similar to GLD, SLV has came down to the next support line.

4. Expecting to see temporary rebound on both GLD and SLV is market allows.    ;-)

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. USO price tanked.

2. Who knows! Just when petrol price went down, natural gas suddenly went up. Price went up daily 20MA and 50MA lines in short two weeks time.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is getting weaker and weaker.
2. This is bad for US stock market too.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Shipping index is still very healthy. However, shipping stocks tank like a big rock.