10th Jan 2011 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (6 months)
-- Expecting a short term retreat. -- All 3 indexes are hitting against strong resistance. -- UUP has confirmed its up trend.	-- Hey… nobody cares what is the real problem with the economy.      ;-)

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Expect volatility on Thursday and Friday.
2. Earning season begin coming week.     ----- Hu .. La…… La

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Intraday chart show interesting gap down and the harami up from the lowest.
2. Interesting up volume yesterday.
3. Weekly chart still show a RED bar. Weekly volume is pretty high and MACD start to turn green.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Intraday SPY shows range bound and looks like loosing strength. However, recently too many "GOOD" news on GDP and Employment.
2. Market keep on selling at the beginning of night and then buy back later half of the night.
3. Long term chart seems to be hitting at the resistance line 127.50
4. 20MA and 200MA line at long term chart is touching each other, preparing for bullish cross.
5. Pay close attention to how it behave at this resistance line.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Same like SPY, hitting against a strong resistance line.
2. Watch how it turns (if there is any) carefully.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. NASDAQ is hitting at a pretty strong (I believe) resistance line. It is interesting to see how it reacts from here.
2. Market is basically back to before crisis. It is just amazing that people think that everything has recover. Has it??
3. All 3 indexes are against all time high.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Looks like UUP up trend is confirmed.
2. Is the inverse relationship of stock market and UUP going to hold? Watch its relationship carefully.
3. This could be the time to SHORT GLD.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

-NA-

 

Input:

 

4. Running out of time!!!

 

GLD, SLV, Natural Gas and UUP charts:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD and SLV looks like they are done!
2. UNG posting good opportunity for LONG entry!

8th Jan 2011 – Classic failure of a flag.

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	1.01					4 months

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. The price gap down heavily at market open.
2. Trigger beyond my stop loss point.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Gap down too fast and went beyond my stop loss.
2. My low entry point gave me enough room to exit properly.
3. I was lucky that I did not top up on this counter which I was thinking about because the triangle formed is fantastic.
4. Wasted about 4 months time of waiting. If I invested on other stock, I could have make more $$. Opportunity cost.
5. I think I should avoid myself from these type of stock.

 

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

8th Jan 2011 – Pattern Study - JSDA

Ticker:

 

1. JSDA

 

Topic:

 

1. Trend is your FRIEND!

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Long term chart and daily chart has shown so many safe entry points.
2. Tonight intraday chart has confirmed another upbreak of the trend line.
3. OBV and MACD both are looking healthy.
4. Strongly believe that there are still lot more room to go up.
5. Price has gone above all the MA lines.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

07th Jan 2011 – Pattern Study - CROX

Ticker:

 

1. CROX -- Have you wear CROX lately?

 

Topic:

 

1. Big Bowl Bottom

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. A "big bowl bottom" pattern proven to be very profitable especially if it appear in long term chart.
2. CROX's big bowl bottom lasted more than 6 months and then started to move up. RSI and Volume started to indicate that. MACD finally crossed above 0.
3. Many entry points along the MA lines.

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

3rd Jan 2011 – The END of BEAR!

Do I need to elaborate?

3rd Jan 2011 – Pattern Study - AMD

Ticker:

 

1. AMD

 

Topic:

 

1. A pre-market gap up study. Have guts to go in?          ;-)

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. The stock should go much higher if it went through $10.00.
2. The 3rd try on $10.00 should post a higher successful rate.
3. The price has gone above all the MA lines. Nothing seems to stop him anymore.
4. Tonight's entry should be pretty safe with a stop loss below $7.80. Well... if you have the $$.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

3rd Jan 2011 – Pattern Study - AIG

Ticker:

 

1. AIG

 

Topic:

 

1. Who dares to buying into a shitty company like AIG (when it is climbing the wall of worries)?

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Chart will always tell you whether shitty company like this is worth to buy in or not. Forget about all the crazy rumors.
2. It has gone above the 100MA line for the long term chart.
3. It has also gone above all the MA line for the 1 year daily chart.
4. Volume has picked up since mid of Nov 2010.
5. Up trending RSI seems to be telling the story.
6. Up trending daily MACD is great.
7. Don't be surprised it poke through $100.00 in the near term.

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

2nd Jan 2011 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (6 months)
-- Trend line for all indexes are still intact. -- However VXX chart is indicating the search of bottom is in progress. Pay close attention.	-- Long term charts show that indexes still got room to play. -- All sector ETF has not shown any weakness.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Should not have much volatility in coming week.
2. What is FOMC gonna say this time….. Nah…. It is not important.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. VXX chart hinting bottoming in progress. However, there is no real indication that it is going to turn now. Pay close attention.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Intraday chart also shows that Bull is not done yet. Look at the volume before the market close.
2. Daily chart shows that things are still intact for SPY. The trend line is not broken.
3. However, long term chart shows that it has come to another strong resistance line. Correction or consolidation is definitely expected.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Intraday chart shows that minor correction is expected.
2. Daily chart shows that DJIA is still strong. It broke the trend line again at 11500.
3. Long term chart looks like there is still room to grow before hitting the next big resistance. It will be interesting to see that happen.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Intraday chart shows that it is now doing at least minor correction.
2. Daily chart shows that trend line is still intact. No immediate danger at all.
3. Long term chart shows that it has got room to play.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. The downturn of UUP chart keep fueling the rally in indexes.
2. Daily chart shows that it has broke down thru 50MA line and now sitting on the trend line. Need confirmation to know whether it is just making consolidation or it has started its down trend.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Every sector seems to be ok.

 

GLD, SLV, Natural Gas and UUP charts:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UNG is very attractive.
2. Gold looks topping, but as long as UUP is on its way down, nothing is going to stop the gold bugs.
3. Everything looks ok except UUP, which is fueling the current market rally.

30th Dec 2010 – Pattern Study on STEM

Ticker:

 

1. STEM

 

Topic:

 

1. This example shows that all patterns are valid either they are stock that > USD100.00 or < USD1.00

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. There are many "obvious" and "safe" entry points if one pays very close attention.
2. Check out the "KILLER spot". This one can get a trader kill pretty easily. This is quite common in this kind of BIO stock.
3. The chart is forming a very interesting triangle NOW. Question now is --- Will it form the 1Million $ entry point for you to get in? And will you dare to get in? And if you get in, where should you set your stop loss point?

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

30th Dec 2010 – Keep staring at the chart…

Keep staring at the chart, you might see what I don’t see…