24th July 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (1 month)
-- SPY, DJIA and NASDAQ are challenging their top most resistance line for around the fourth time. This is bullish. If Obama able to get the congress to buy his idea, Monday will open much much higher, else watch out! -- All sectors are showing that they are challenging their top resistance line.	-- Debt talk by Obama can get worse if the congress play with him. -- Heavy data week ahead. -- VXX is still challenging the bottom line. -- GLD rally shows how worry gold bug is. -- FXI is still stuck in its downtrend.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Pretty heavy data week ahead.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. It is challenging its bottom line. Things can get nasty. However, currently the bottom line still act more like a resistance than as support and it is still been guarded by the downtrend line.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY reach a all time high again.
2. The uptrend line and its 20MA line still act as strong support line.
3. This should be about the fourth time it challenge the upper resistance line.
4. Pattern wise it is bullish. However it is a sword with double edge. It can act as a multiple top.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Again, UUP broken down again. A sign for the bull run for stock?!

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Almost all of them are forming multiple top or challenging its downtrend line. This is very bullish. However, temporary set back is somehow expected.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD and SLV are just so strong. Not a good shorting target yet.
2. GLD is going to reach its upper part of its uptrend line. Shorting opportunity might be near.
3. It is much harder to predict for silver.
4. USO has came back up to its uptrend line.
5. UNG is still very weak. This commodity is also hard to trade.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is still fix to its downtrend.
2. All its MA line (20, 50, 100, 200) all curving downward. Be careful of all the China stock that you currently hold. Can be a hard hit.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Shipping segment is turning south again. Not good.
2. If you check out the shipping stocks, they are just horrible.

20th July 2011–I found a partner in Friend Finder Network.

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
4.50				4.25

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Intraday chart shows that it has started its uptrend.
2. Daily chart shows that it has rebound very well from its 20MA line.
3. Both daily and long term weekly charts look really good and in a very positive trend.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Actually the best buy point is at the daily 20MA line when it touches it.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

20th July 2011–Astalavista… I am back.

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
33.70				31.84

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Intraday chart shows a gap up to the down trend line and its 20MA line. A bullish indicator.
2. Market was very bullish from the start.
3. Daily chart shows that it is now resting at its 20MA line.
4. Long term chart shows that it has just completed the 50% retracement for its Fibonacci. Consider as a safer entry point.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. This is another self-learn lesson on buying at daily 20MA line.
2. It is really hard to sit on my both hands when this stock keep going up previously.
3. I don't dare to buy in when it punched through its daily 20MA line yesterday, but then this could be a good practice.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

20th July 2011–Let’s rob Citibank again!

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
38.00				35.43

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. It has punched through the downtrend trend line and come back up rebound after making a short term double bottom and now it is sitting on the trend line again.
2. It has announced its quarter report, should not see much volatility.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Again, I am not patient enough to wait for my entry. Market was very bullish in the start and keep going strong.
2. I should have know better that at price $38.00, there is the 20MA line that is blocking. A temporary wait will normally get me a better price entry.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

18th July 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (6 months)
-- All indexes pointing to a higher chances of bull move. -- Not much data on tap, but careful on the jobless claim.	-- The debt problem and the Moody comment. Well… -- Gold is all time high again. This shows you in very long term, market is going to be hit heavily.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. I am really running out of time this week. This time it is going to be short and missed a lot of data.
2. Not much of data this week, but watch out for the jobless claim.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term weekly chart of VXX is still below 20MA line.
2. Daily chart shows that it is sitting on the 50MA line. Watch out for a possible rebound.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. All SPY, DJIA and NASDAQ long term chart indicate the same setting. All of them are sitting on the long term 20MA lines.
2. Weekly wise, all of them are having minimum weekly correction.
3. All their daily charts show that all of them having support from their 20MA, 50MA and 100MA lines. This is very encouraging for the bull.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term UUP dropped below its 20MA line again.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

NONE

 

Input:

 

1. None.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

NONE

 

Input:

 

1. None.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

NONE

 

Input:

 

1. None.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

NONE

 

Input:

 

1. None.

15th July 2011–Spent some $$ in MOToR City.

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	7.32				Losses	9 Days

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Stop loss triggered

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. I don't like what it is doing. Market was up at the beginning of the market, but this stock  keep going south.
2. I should have moved my stop loss to the break even point previously since the market is bearish. Quite a mistake.
3. From the intraday and daily chart you can see that it is really weak. However, long term weekly chart says that the rebound point can be pretty near. So keep an eye on this thing. Watch for its turning point again.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

13th July 2011–Pattern Study–Take good care GS

Ticker:

 

1. GS

 

Topic:

 

1. On the edge of breaking down.
2. Another possible Big wedge break down pattern.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. A SHORT position here can be lucrative.

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart