8th Aug 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (1 month)
-- Can anybody give me just 1 reason for me to put up the BULL photo? -- AAA rating got stripped in the weekend. Market is going to go tank like submarine on Monday. -- Thing is going to get really bad this week.	-- Debit ceiling, -- Job employment…. Etc.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. More data is going to make thing worst only.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Amazing! Break through all MA lines is such a short time frame. Now only 200MA line is its resistance line.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY looks like coming to the support line, but with the downgrade of USA rating, the support might not hold.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP is consolidating with the OBV and MACD turning into up trend.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. All of them breach MA lines.
2. Most of them either break trend line or coming to trend line.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD and SLV is going to go wild.
2. Oil is going to tank further.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Looks like it is going to break down from its consolidation range.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Nothing is interesting in Baltic yet. With such a bad market condition, don't expect anything from this sector.

3rd Aug 2011–Gathering with my old partner in Friend Finder Network

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
4.10				3.78

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. It punched through upward the intraday downtrend line and the 20MA line.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. My entry point again sucks. Again, I cannot resist to wait until 12:00am.
2. I should have waited for all the debt ceiling issue to be cleared before this entry.
3. Market was very bearish, I should have waited.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

3rd Aug 2011–Pattern Study - Missed the BIG CRASH again!!!

 

Ticker:

 

1. SPY, DJIA, NASDAQ

 

Topic:

 

1. Head-n-Shoulder Pattern

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Again, I missed the BIG CRASH !!! What was I doing?
2. SPY and DJIA both punch through the neckline of their head-n-shoulder as well as their 200MA lines.
3. NASDAQ neckline intact but 200MA line is broken.
4. Volume is pretty high.
5. House and Senate both passed the debt ceiling deal and Moody affirmed that USA is still Aaa, but market took the opportunity to trash it.
6. What's next? …… Watch closely!

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

2nd Aug 2011–Didn't I tell you not to play with SiLVer fire?

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	13.50				Even	1 day

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. PANIC SELL !!!!!
2. GLD still come all the way back up.
3. All indexes suddenly turn down instead of rally. DJIA turn from opening +150 to -100 over points.
4. So GLD and SLV start to get buyer again. This is really not what I want to see.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. I should have let it play out with my stop loss intact. This is only 1 day maybe should not be so panic.
2. Anyway, we will see whether I am right or wrong on this one tonight.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

-NA-

1st Aug 2011–A silver lining between right and wrong.

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
13.37				12.89

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. GLD has just nice touches the top part of its trend line. In fact a very safe spot to Short GLD.
2. GLD Intraday start showing weakness in its intraday chart.
3. SLV reached its previous high of 40.5 and it start to show weakness in its daily chart.
4. SLV intraday showed that it started to poke down thru the 20MA and 50MA lines.
5. ZSL formed a double bottom formation.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Need to watch the move of GLD to trade SLV or ZSL.
2. Be very patient to wait for the safest entry. GLD and SLV are very tough commodity to play with.
3. The Obama success in the debt ceiling seems to crush the GLD advance right on time.
4. Be ready to get rid of the holding at anytime.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

1st Aug 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

I am running out of time again this week to do my analysis. This is a quick one!

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (1 month)
-- Not much data coming up, except the BIG DEBT announcement. -- VXX suddenly turn negative while all indexes are still going down.	-- The debt problem will not be going away.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not much data coming up.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Indexes are going down but VXX suddenly turn negative. Unbelievable !!!
2. 100MA line acts as a resistance line.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY came down  and touches trend line. Expecting a short term rebound first.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. NASDAQ is much stronger compare to SPY and DJIA. It still hold above its 20MA line.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP is still getting weaker.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Can't comment much.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD has reached the peak of its trend line now. Safe point to do SHORT.
2. Intraday SLV shows weakness. 20MA and 50MA lines doing a BEAR crossing. Now both MA lines act more like resistance line.
3. Daily chart of SLV shows that it touched previous high of $40.50 and started to correct.
4. USO is still weak. Its 20MA line continues to act as resistance line.
5. UNG continues to get weaker and weaker. Now its 20MA line is resistance line.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI came back up from its 200MA line and now retest its uptrend line.
2. Long term wise be very careful, all the MA lines are curving in. Not good in long run.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. -NA-