15th Aug 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (1 month)
-- Temporary rebound is expected. -- All 3 indexes intraday chart shows that 20MA and 50MA lines taken. Short term rally is expected. -- SPY and DJIA have strong support from daily chart 200MA line. -- This short tem rally might last only for a week. Watch out when indexes come back up and hit the MA lines again.	-- FXI might indicate something bad is on the way for USA. -- Housing, CPI and PPI are on tap for next week reports. -- All sectors charts are badly damaged, it will not recover so easily. -- Watch out when VXX came back down and get support from 200MA line.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Housing, CPI and PPI all in. Can be a volatile week.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. The strongest volume ever seen.
2. 200MA line in daily chart is now the support line.
3. 20MA line in weekly chart is now a support line and its weekly chart resistance is at 50MA line.
4. Expect the daily VXX to retest its 200MA line before spike up again.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Intraday chart shows that SPY has stabilized at the range of 112.50 - 117.50.
2. Intraday also shows that both 20MA and 50MA lines are taken with ease, bullish cross MA lines formed.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY with additional support from 100MA line.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to DJIA.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Uptrend in intraday of UUP chart looks pretty hard to sustain.
2. Weekly chart shows that 20MA line is still its resistance line. However, it also shows that the bottom is in at 21.00 until it is broken.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. All sectors have been badly damaged. Temporary rebound is expected but it will be terribly hard to sustain.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD start to show weakness, but it is all time high.
2. Read an article, it says that the margin call requirement for GLD has been raised. Will this trigger what happened to SLV previously?! It is going to be interesting to see that.
3. Entire GLD weekly chart from day one is really interesting. Shorting of GLD looks like will be the next step.
4. Daily SLV chart shows that it is trading at 20MA and 100MA line. Will the raise of margin call on GLD also going to kill SLV?
5. UNG is still trading below its 20MA line. It has come to another decision making point on it daily chart. It has been trading in a range for more than 3 months.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. All MA lines taken out badly.
2. FXI is totally in BEAR market. Could this be the hint of what is coming to USA? They might see something that we don't see.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Still bound with the 20MA line. Nothing much interesting here. Let's see how long it take before it can break out from this stable zone.
2. All the shipping stocks are hit like mad.     ;-)
3. Be patient  and wait for the golden opportunity.

10th Aug 2011–Here I come again… ZSL!

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
13.80				12.92

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. A double bottom at ZSL in its weekly chart.
2. SLV chart pattern seems to display weakness.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. This is a very hard to trade ETF because SLV is a hard to trade commodity in general.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

10th Aug 2011–Know your PriCeLiNe before your short!

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
		520.00		542.45

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Intraday shows that it start to get weak where it was traded lower than its range bound two days before.
2. Earning just release, so there should be very minimum surprise to the upside.
3. Its daily 20MA line act more like a resistance line.
4. A clear double top can be seen in the weekly chart.
5. Its weekly 20MA line is now its resistance line. At April and July it poke down thru its weekly 20MA line twice.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Sell short at its intraday 50MA line. This is a very strong stock so it should be able to get up to the 50MA line before it came back down. Don't rush to short it.
2. This is a strong stock, so be ready to run if things goes wrong.

 

** Special Note: This post is specially dedicated to my good friend – Boon Leong.     

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

8th Aug 2011–When the DATE turn sour!

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	14.39				Profit	~1 month 18 days

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Market is really in bad shape.
2. My YOKU, RENN and FFN are all either weak or triggered. It is time to lock profit.
3. Daily chart shows that it break down from the up trend line of $14.50.
4. Intraday up trend line is also broken. Lock profit.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Listen to the market, don’t fight it.
2. Managed to get out of this stock with BIG profit before market crash. Excellent job on this one.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

8th Aug 2011–Don’t fall in love with China Facebook.

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	10.05				losses	1 week

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Cut loss.
2. My YOKU, DATE and other stocks all look tremendously weak. It is time to go.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. When you have a basket of stocks and most of them are triggered and look weak, it is time to let go.
2. Don't fall in love in any stock.
3. Exited this one with very minimum losses before the market crash! Good job for myself.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

8th Aug 2011–Other then its movie, stay away from YOKU.

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	34.25

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Stop Loss raised and triggered.
2. Market looks not healthy.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Remember… Don't fall in love with any stock. I almost did on this one.
2. I am glad I raised the stop loss to about stop even point.
3. I walked out from market crash in good shape on this stock.
4. Looks like I will have much better price in the very near future on this stock,

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart