18th Nov 2010 – I want to be a SUPER TRADER!

18th Nov 2010 – Was the CRASH of 12th – 17th Nov obvious?

Ticker:

1. DJIA, SP500, NASDAQ

Topic:

1. Is the crash of 12th - 17th Nov obvious?

Lesson Learnt:

1. The crash was very obvious.
2. Not catching it is my STUPIDITY. No one to blame.
3. China crash on 12 Nov is the 1st warning.
4. High -ve volume day last week 2nd warning that people are letting go.
5. A broke at 11,200 line was the 3rd warning.
6. A broke at the two trend lines 4th warning.

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

17th Nov 2010 – Something is really Wrong!

Something is really WRONG with me!

I look at the index plunge and I did not take advantage at all.

As long as I did not find out WHY I am not doing what I am suppose to be doing, I don’t think I will ever success as a trader.

9th Nov 2010 – Twitter and Stock.

What a relationship! Interesting.

8th Nov 2010 – SHORTIE Mind Set.

Going SHORT is much more difficult and dangerous then going long.

My problem when come to SHORT

 

Item	Attitude
1	CONSOLIDATION <> WEAKNESS -- Don't confuse between consolidation and weakness. -- Below 50MA line has more weakness. -- Breaking pattern such as Head-n-Shoulder will help to increase probability of success. -- Above 50MA line tends to consolidate.
2	MIND SET CHANGE -- If stock reverse and become strong, consider to go long.
3	BIG PICTURE IN MIND -- When indexes are bullish. Try not to do shorting without very good reasons.
4	HIGH GO HIGHER -- Don't short just because it is high. -- The high will tend to go higher.
5	DON'T GO AGAINST FASHION -- Shorting stock like AAPL GOOG when its product is still in fashion is like suicide. -- Should always go long for fashion stock until downturn confirmed.

8th Nov 2010 – My attitude is the problem

It is my ATTITUDE that stop me from being a SUCCESS trader!!! It is time to change.

 

I am not a trader before I got all these:

 

Item	Attitude
1	DON'T COMPARE -- Don't compare your performance with your peers. -- You are fighting with the whole world. If you want to compare, it will be endless.
2	OPPORTUNITY -- Somehow, sometimes we still miss the opportunity even though it is obvious. -- Learn to SEE  opportunity and learn how to CATCH them right on time. -- As long as there is market, there is opportunity, either long or short.
3	FACE THE FACT -- As a trader, you have to face the reality when you made a mistake.
4	PATIENCE -- Learn to wait for the prey to come to your attack line.
5	PAIN THRESHOLD -- Know your pain threshold level before entry. -- Adjust line of attack with pain threshold line for maximum safety.
6	SERIOUS BUSINESS -- You are here for business, not fun or excitement.
7	SLIM APPETITE -- Don’t chew what you cannot swallow. -- Too many tickers will bury you alive.
8	TREND IS YOUR FRIEND -- Follow what the trend tells you.
9	NO CRYSTAL BALL -- Don't predict pivot point. -- See --> Confirmed --> Act

6th Oct 2010 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (6 months)
-- The BEAR is DEAD!

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

1. No much even this coming week. Looks like there is nothing that will stop the bull at all.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

1. Market is just too bullish.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

1. Basically all lines have been broken. Nothing seems to block the index anymore.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

1. Unstoppable!

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

1. Same

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

1. The higher will go higher.

 

GLD, SLV and UUP charts:

 

 

Input:

1. Gold and Oil are unstoppable.

3rd Nov 2010 – Acidic Soda… JSDA

Input:

 

1. This example shows a BAD example of stop loss management.
2. Stock came back stink me and pops back up.
3. Earning calls on 11th Nov, should I get it back??!!

 

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Stop loss hit.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. I was too confident that this stock will not come that close.
2. I need to improve a lot on stop loss management.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

3rd Nov 2010 – My car battery leaks…

Input:

 

1. This is a GOOD example of my good control in stop loss.

 

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses
	9.50

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Stop loss was hit at $9.50
2. Intraday chart seems to indicate a break of all the lines that I had. Think NO MORE!
3. Daily chart also shows a lot of weakness. Looks like the breakout of the triangle cannot sustain.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Good decision as far as NOW is concerned.
2. We will get it back later (maybe)...

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

3rd Nov 2010 – Drowning in the oil mud… HELP me!

Input:

 

1. Net Profit drop but stock went up. This hurts

 

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. -NA-

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. I should have sell when the market opens where it gap to $41.25 which is also the top part of intraday trend line.
2. I think I have to find a way to buy to recover for this stock before it even reach my stop loss.
3. Will see how volatility tonight (FOMC) can help me or …. Destroy me.

 

Intraday Chart

MarketWatch First Take Nov. 2, 2010, 7:08 p.m. EDT BP’s accidental stakeholders Commentary: Gulf Coast needs profits to safeguard payouts By MarketWatch SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — After being tarred and feathered in the marketplace, BP is clawing its way back. And the Gulf Coast couldn’t be happier. On Tuesday, London-based BP PLC (NYSE:BP)  posted a net profit of $1.79 billion. That’s down 67% from a year ago, but it’s also a return to profit after a second-quarter loss of $17 billion. More importantly, it’s better than the analysts expected, and it offers further evidence that the company is getting the upper hand on the crisis that nearly sank it. See full story on BP's latest results. Today’s upbeat report is in sharp contrast to those first dark weeks following the April 20 Deepwater Horizon blowout, when BP was staring at a very real threat of bankruptcy. As the magnitude of the Gulf spill became clear and it became equally clear BP’s plan to cap the well was no more than a trial-and-error exercise, investors fled. Oil traders also fled, wary of doing business with a wounded giant. And the ratings agencies put BP on credit-watch negative, the first step toward costly downgrades. About the time Washington jumped on board the public outrage, BP’s dividend was toast. On June 16, the company officially suspended dividend payments. A week later the stock’s stock bottomed out at $58.86 a share in New York, having had more than half of its pre-blowout market value wiped out. Meanwhile, the cost of the spill continues to grow. BP is already on the hook to raise $20 billion to fund claims against it. Today, the company took an additional $7.7 billion charge against earnings to cover the cost of capping the well, a task that took nearly three months and cost way more than expected. The failed ‘preventer’ Unedited video shows the failed blowout preventer that unleashed the Deepwater Horizon oil spill being lifted from the well this autumn. That’s all in the past now. The legal wrangling over culpability for the spill is still in the early stages, and there are billions of dollars in damages to be doled out. But only if BP stays healthy. In the space of six months, BP has gone from demon to cash cow. Where does this leave investors? When does BP get a clean bill of health? Not until it restores its dividend. The company has said that could happen in February, when it announces its 2010 full-year results. They might still be cleaning tarballs off the beaches down south, but BP’s fall from grace does not preclude financial redemption. Just ask any of its newfound stakeholders on the Gulf Coast.   Pasted from <http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=19459E52-E6BB-11DF-ABF6-002128040CF6>

Historical Chart