12th Oct 2011–Pattern Study - My good friend, SPY and AMEN !

Ticker:

 

1. SPY

 

Topic:

 

1. My very GOOD friend Boon Leong called me and asked, "Will the market go up or down next?"

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. To be frank , I don't know. How I wish I know the answer.      ;-)
2. His question actually shows that I am not doing a very good job in my previous post on the SPY, DJIA and NASDAQ and maybe that is why he would like to give me a call for confirmation.
3. This time I took the effort to look at the 10 year monthly chart with only the 20MA line of SPY and see whether does it gives a single clue of where will we be heading to.
4. It is clear that during each bull market, when value retrace back to the 20MA line, it rebounds back up and continue the bull run (refer to all those green color arrows).
5. When bear market began, for example somewhere just before point "1" in the figure, the value punch through downward the 20MA line and then it will retrace back to point "1" (refer to the red arrow)before heading south and went much lower without looking back.
6. Take a look at point "2", did you see the similarity of it to point "1"? Look closer, this time the Bear came much steeper and stronger and the absolute low is lower than the previous low.
7. Now, we are point "3". Will this actually become point "3", you judge yourself. Did you see any similarity of this point to point "1" and point "2"? First, the high point around May is now much lower compare to the previous two high. Second, the SPY had punch through downward the 20MA line on Sept 2011 and now tracing back to the 20MA line (the right most red arrow).
8. So, will history repeat and make TODAY the day of point "3"????
9. If YES, how South and how low will we be actually going???
10. The chart hints that we could be all the way down to the range of 60~65 for SPY.  AMEN !!!!!

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

12th Oct 2011–Pattern Study–How much further can it go?!

Ticker:

 

1. SPY, DJIA and NASDAQ

 

Topic:

 

1. Retest the resistance line again.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. All the indexes have at least did a double bottom and bounce back and are now testing the MA and resistance line again.
2. We have been in rang-bound market for > 2 months.
3. I don’t expect the indexes rally much from here, the most is to its weekly 50MA line.

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

11th Oct 2011–Pattern Study - Everyone says invest in CHINA!

Ticker:

 

1. CHINA

 

Topic:

 

1. Make sure you know which CHINA to invest in.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. You can still make $$ if you invest accordingly every time it came to the long term support line, but make sure you have the stop loss point tightly guarded.
2. Once the chart passed the final support line (in this case is ~$2.00), you should no longer go long unless you are very sure there is sign of life.

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

11th Oct 2011–The revenge of the dragon.

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	44.55				even	2 days

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Market rally heavily at open. Decide to cut it before it reach my purchase point.
2. The bull will almost run through the night. The next day might rally again, who knows!

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Market gap up for all indexes. No point holding this TZA any longer. Let's cut it first and watch later. The next safe entry point should be at $41.00 which is where the daily 200MA line is.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

11th Oct 2011–A perfect Bull Trap !

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	134				Even	5 days

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Stop loss triggered!

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Don't rush in when your holding stock gap up especially  after it has gone down so much. The bear camp might not be done yet.
2. This is such a good example of Bull Trap !!!
3. Looking at the intraday chart again, I should have move the stop loss much higher immediately after the gap at the opening.
4. Picking bottom is always a risky business, stop loss is just too important.
5. Should I go short next??!!

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

9th Oct 2011–Will this be the last sad song for NFLX?

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
113.00				114.00 (adjusted)

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. After all the huge dropped, price seems to stable at Fibonacci level of 61.8% of weekly chart.
2. Intraday shows that price started to tag along the 20MA and 50MA lines.
3. After all the heavy and high volume dropped, volume started to cool down.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Be very careful. This can be a falling knife at any time.
2. Stop loss point has been adjusted immediately after the price raised above $120.00 for capital protection.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

9th Oct 2011–It is a the dragon season again.

 

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
44.00				41.50

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Both daily and weekly chart shows that $44.00 is a pretty safe entry.
2. Intraday chart shows that price did stabilized at $44.00.
3. Indexes before market open was very high, but disappeared quickly after market opened and started to go downward.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Watch the trend and MA lines.
2. Don't rush into the market when it opened. Watch for its movement.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

9th Oct 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Long term (1 month)

-- VXX is still on its uptrend. -- UUP is still on its uptrend. -- All 3 indexes are still stuck in their range bound activity and forming more lower low and lower high. Their strong support line was briefly taken out but quickly retraced back. -- All sectors facing temporary resistance. -- USO is still in its down trend. -- UNG is the worst among all the commodities. -- GLD still stuck in the range bound activity and SLV still cannot retake its resistance line.

-- Earning season starts soon. Might see bull trying to step in. -- Copper shows a strong high volume rebound from its support line, but overall it is still in down trend. -- Shipment still embark on its uptrend. Something that I cannot understand but need attention. -- Can't see any bullish sign for the market at all.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Very minimum data coming out next week. Expect the market is going to just follow the chart pattern rather than any unpredictable movement.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. VXX is still on its up trend.
2. Weekly chart shows that it rebound at the weekly 20MA line.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly and daily chart shows that the strong support line at 110 was broken, but was quickly retraced. This might be the first sign of a  Big Bad Bear.
2. Daily chart shows that 20MA line still act as resistance line.
3. Both daily and weekly MACD still in down trend.
4. Weekly chart shows that it rebounded and came back on top of 200MA line.
5. More lower low and lower high have established in this range bound activity. This might indicate weakness.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily chart shows that it retest the 50MA line and now reclaim back 20MA line.
2. Both daily and weekly MACD are still in down trend.
3. However, daily OBV are on the rise.
4. Weekly chart shows that it rebounded from 200MA line and now retest 100MA line.
5. Same line SPY, more lower low and lower high was established and strong support at 10,600 line was broken and quickly retraced back.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly chart shows that it is retesting 100MA line. It also shows that the trend line for the flag as once broken downward and quickly retraced back. Right now weekly 100MA line also act as resistance line.
2. Daily and weekly MACD are still in down trend.
3. Daily chart shows that it is facing strong resistance at 20MA and 50MA lines.
4. Similar to SPY and DJIA, more lower low and lower high have established.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly and daily charts show that its up trend is still intact.
2. Daily chart shows that it rebound at the 20MA line, but warn that MACD started to curve downward.
3. Weekly MACD and OBV are still pointing upward.
4. Very strong volume for the past one month.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Most sectors are again facing resistance line one way or another. Temporary retreat is expected.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly GLD chart shows that it seem to find support at $155.00, but facing resistance at its 20MA line.
2. Daily GLD chart shows that it has support from the trend line and now retest its 100MA line. Daily MACD also starting to curve up and its OBV uptrend was not broken at all.
3. Weekly SLV shows that it is facing resistance line at $32.00. Its weekly MACD and OBV are still in down trend.
4. Daily SLV chart shows that the price is still below all MA lines.
5. Daily USO chart shows that it is still in down trend but retesting its 20MA line.
6. UNG is such a terrible looser.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly FXI chart shows that it has support at 30.00 even though it was broken and quickly retraced back.
2. Weekly MACD and OBV are still bucking on the down trend.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly Copper chart shows a strong rebound with high volume that formed a bullish engulfing pattern. Its strong support line is at 39.00.
2. Weekly MACD and OBV are still on down trend.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The shipment rally does has legs to it.