Monday, March 21, 2011

21st March 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Long term (1 month)

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-- Expecting a rebound of all indexes especially at the beginning of week.

-- Expect VXX to come down and retest its support line.

-- UUP is dropping like crazy.

-- Most sectors ETFs have shown rebound from their trend line.

-- FXI up trend is not broken yet.

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-- Libya is been attacked since weekend which will drive oil.

-- Japan nuclear problem still not clear.

-- VXX is already in up trend. Until it establish down trend, we have to respect it.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

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Input:

 

  1. Quite some data to be announced including GDP on Friday.

 

VXX chart:

 

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Input:

 

  1. Libya air-strike began. Expected more volatility in coming week.

 

SPY chart:

 

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Input:

 

  1. Down trend has got a strong support at weekly 20MA line.

 

DJIA chart:

 

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Input:

 

  1. Support at 100MA line at daily chart.
  2. Resistance at 12,000 line.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

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Input:

 

  1. NASDAQ looks really weak. It is the weakest among all 3 indexes.
  2. 100MA line in daily chart has started to become resistance line.

 

UUP chart:

 

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Input:

 

  1. UUP is going down to HELL !

 

Sector Analysis:

 

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Input:

 

  1. Only XLK, XLU and XLY fall out of its support level. The rest rebound from its support line and look healthy now.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

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Input:

 

  1. Gold and Silver bugs are not going to give up so easily.
  2. With the jet flying over Libya air space, USO might be rebound hard.
  3. Natural gas is looking pretty sweet and attractive.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

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Input:

 

  1. FXI is still at its up trend even though it is weak.

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