25th June 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- It is interesting that market actually went crazy when I was not doing my homework for a month. -- China FXI is still very weak and might be getting weaker. -- All indexes clearly indicate strong resistance at their weekly 20MA lines and daily 100MA lines. -- VXX is now at a triple bottom situation. Volume is also getting higher. -- USO, GLD and SLV have came down to retest their trend line. Ben's announcement is also not encouraging to the Gold bugs. -- The only weird one is the natural gas UNG. It has poke up through its weekly 20MA line again. This could well be a buy signal. -- Thursday's jobless claim report can be very important to the market has mentioned by Ben the he will be watching job report very closely. -- UUP has retest its upper part of trendline and retraced temporary, -- Shipment index is again pointing downward. -- Most sectors are showing mid term downtrend is still intact. -- Expect the indexes to rebound back to maybe their daily chart 50MA line before another big drop.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Monthly chart shows that its 20MA line has been threaten once. Price rebound back above the 20MA line but not much.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Thursday data will be crucial.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly VXX chart is again all time low and came out with a triple bottom. This is dangerous.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Looking at the weekly and daily chart of SPY, one should not be surprised with the big drop on Thursday. Were you?      ;-)

2. A big resistance of 20MA line in the weekly chart and 100MA line in the daily chart has warned us very well.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY. Just that DJIA is slightly stronger and gave you an illusion that its daily chart's 100MA line has been taken over.

2. However, weekly chart has warned you that there is a big resistance line from the May'11 high.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY and DJIA, but NASDAQ is much weaker among thee three.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP might have started to establish a reverse of its downtrend.

2. Price has successful go above the monthly 20MA line. Will see how it comes back to the 20MA line.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Most sectors are still staying within the mid term downtrend with strong resistance from their 50MA lines.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Copper's downtrend continues. Price has again came down to test its trend line.

2. Monthly MACD is still pointing more downward potential is building up.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD has again broke down its monthly 20MA line. Monthly GLD chart shows that all secondary indicators are all going downward and weak.
2. SLV is even weaker. Came out with a multiple bottom. All secondary indicators are pointing more downward potential.

 

Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. USO is very weak too. A three year multiple bottom chart is now in front of us. Price is also below its monthly 20MA line.
2. UNG is the only one that is indicating something else. Good volume has started to come in and price has broken through the weekly 20MA line twice. A W bottom shape seems to be in the making.
3. UNG can be a very good long candidate.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. China is only showing more weakness. All secondary indicators continue their downward moves.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Shipment has again dropped below trend line and its 20MA line.