Wednesday, November 3, 2010

3rd Nov 2010 – Drowning in the oil mud… HELP me!

oil Input:

 

  1. Net Profit drop but stock went up. This hurts

 

Buy $

Sell $

Sell Short $

Buy Back $

Stop Loss $

Profit / Losses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

  1. -NA-

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

  1. I should have sell when the market opens where it gap to $41.25 which is also the top part of intraday trend line.
  2. I think I have to find a way to buy to recover for this stock before it even reach my stop loss.
  3. Will see how volatility tonight (FOMC) can help me or …. Destroy me.

 

Intraday Chart

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MarketWatch First Take

Nov. 2, 2010, 7:08 p.m. EDT

BP’s accidental stakeholders

Commentary: Gulf Coast needs profits to safeguard payouts

By MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — After being tarred and feathered in the marketplace, BP is clawing its way back. And the Gulf Coast couldn’t be happier.

On Tuesday, London-based BP PLC (NYSE:BP)  posted a net profit of $1.79 billion. That’s down 67% from a year ago, but it’s also a return to profit after a second-quarter loss of $17 billion. More importantly, it’s better than the analysts expected, and it offers further evidence that the company is getting the upper hand on the crisis that nearly sank it. See full story on BP's latest results.

Today’s upbeat report is in sharp contrast to those first dark weeks following the April 20 Deepwater Horizon blowout, when BP was staring at a very real threat of bankruptcy.

As the magnitude of the Gulf spill became clear and it became equally clear BP’s plan to cap the well was no more than a trial-and-error exercise, investors fled. Oil traders also fled, wary of doing business with a wounded giant. And the ratings agencies put BP on credit-watch negative, the first step toward costly downgrades.

About the time Washington jumped on board the public outrage, BP’s dividend was toast. On June 16, the company officially suspended dividend payments. A week later the stock’s stock bottomed out at $58.86 a share in New York, having had more than half of its pre-blowout market value wiped out.

Meanwhile, the cost of the spill continues to grow. BP is already on the hook to raise $20 billion to fund claims against it. Today, the company took an additional $7.7 billion charge against earnings to cover the cost of capping the well, a task that took nearly three months and cost way more than expected.

The failed ‘preventer’

Unedited video shows the failed blowout preventer that unleashed the Deepwater Horizon oil spill being lifted from the well this autumn.

That’s all in the past now. The legal wrangling over culpability for the spill is still in the early stages, and there are billions of dollars in damages to be doled out. But only if BP stays healthy. In the space of six months, BP has gone from demon to cash cow.

Where does this leave investors? When does BP get a clean bill of health? Not until it restores its dividend. The company has said that could happen in February, when it announces its 2010 full-year results.

They might still be cleaning tarballs off the beaches down south, but BP’s fall from grace does not preclude financial redemption. Just ask any of its newfound stakeholders on the Gulf Coast.

 

Pasted from <http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=19459E52-E6BB-11DF-ABF6-002128040CF6>

 

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Historical Chart

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Sunday, October 31, 2010

31st Oct 2010 – My review on AZO

Input:

 

  1. -NA-

 

Buy $

Sell $

Sell Short $

Buy Back $

Stop Loss $

Profit / Losses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

  1. -NA-

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

  1. My thought after my buy back is to go LONG. My thought was right.
  2. I have to learn up this skill, that is to reverse my position when necessary.
  3. My decision to BUY BACK was correct even though my timing was not good enough.

 

Intraday Chart

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Historical Chart

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Saturday, October 30, 2010

30th Oct 2010 – Weekly Position Review

BP (SHORT)

Input:

 

  1. Short term chart shows that position might be in danger.
  2. Above 20MA and 50MA line in intraday chart is not good for me as a "SHORTER".
  3. Long term chart shows that it is still within the down trend line and also the 20MA line.

 

Buy $

Sell $

Sell Short $

Buy Back $

Stop Loss $

Profit / Losses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

  1. -NA-

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

  1. There are still a lot to learn on how to short at the best optimum price.

 

Intraday Chart

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Historical Chart

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JSDA (LONG)

Input:

 

  1. Everything seems to be on track.
  2. Currently it retraced back to the intraday 20MA line which is what I expected as healthy for more rally next week.
  3. Daily chart shows that it has resistance at the trend line at $1.30.
  4. Daily chart shows that it has support at 20MA and 100MA line.
  5. Weekly chart shows that it has a good mental support at $1.10.

 

Buy $

Sell $

Sell Short $

Buy Back $

Stop Loss $

Profit / Losses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

  1. -NA-

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

  1. My purchase point can be polished to be better.

 

Intraday Chart

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Historical Chart

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AONE (LONG)

Input:

 

  1. Weekly chart MACD looks good.
  2. Intraday pull back shows good extra loading point, if got $$$.
  3. Intraday chart shows price is currently supported by 20MA and 50MA line and the uptrend line.
  4. Another break above $10.00 will indicate strong long term rally.

 

Buy $

Sell $

Sell Short $

Buy Back $

Stop Loss $

Profit / Losses

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

  1. -NA-

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

  1. Again, improvement needed for entry timing.

 

 

Intraday Chart

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Historical Chart

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30th Oct 2010 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Long term (6 months)

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-- We could be at a turning point. VXX is posing some threat.

-- MACD in daily charts of SPY and DJIA has started to turn negative.

-- The QE2 and interest rate announcement will be the key.

-- Get ready to turn to BEAR when it happens.

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-- Will not call off this BEAR before DJIA broke 11,200 point for sure

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

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VXX chart:

 

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Input:

  1. Be careful, VXX could be bottom up. It should all depend on the FOMC day on Wednesday.

 

SPY chart:

 

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Input:

  1. Daily 6 month chart shows that SPY is still intact, but MACD is starting to show bearish sentiment.
  2. Some kind of correction might start. Long term chart shows that price are retreating from the 200MA line.

 

DJIA chart:

 

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Input:

  1. Same as SPY.
  2. 11K point is a very important support point at 200MA line.
  3. Daily 6 month chart MACD start to turn bearish

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

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Input:

  1. NASDAQ is still very strong and it still has room to grow.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

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Input:

  1. XLK is still very bullish. That explain why NASDAQ still not stopping.

 

GLD, SLV and UUP charts:

 

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Input:

  1. UNG is quite interesting, looks like already bottom.
  2. UUP is fluctuating quite heavily at bottom. Could be in progress of deciding bottom.
  3. USO continue to be block by the trendline.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

28th Oct 2010 – Nice Car!

temp

F - Candle Three Years_1w #D#

28th Oct 2010 – Time to SHORT AAPL?

Sounds like they might buy off SONY, ADBE and DIS.                    Devil         But, maybe can SHORT AAPL first.       Open-mouthed

temp 

AAPL - Candle YTD_1d #D#

28th Oct 2010 – QE2 next week.

This is going to be interesting and of course………          SCARY!!!          Skull

temp

28th Oct 2010 – Is this true?

Is bank really going down? Watch out for FAZ.            Nerd

economy 2

28th Oct 2010 – Too bad it wasn’t me!

Just too bad!!!                      Crying

economy 1

Sunday, October 24, 2010