12th Sept 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (1 month)
-- All those Europe issues had never gone away. -- Market Watch is expecting the retail sales figure to be "not so good". -- VXX chart completed it cup with handle formation. -- UUP gap up with good volume. -- All sector charts show testing of lower part of supporting trend line. -- GLD shows another scary pennant formation, another move higher??	-- All indexes are showing dead-cat bounce formation. MACD all dipped into below zero territory. -- FXI is going to test its strongest support line. -- The only bullish indictor is the Baltic only. -- UNG and USO are testing lower part of trend line.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not much data except Wed and Thursday.
2. Market Watch did not put in nice hope for the retail sales figure.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. VXX broken its previous high of mid August.
2. It looks like completed the forming a cup with handle. This is really bad news for the stock market.
3. Volumes are there. OBV spike high. MACD remains high and is about to do another bullish cross.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The only support left is the weekly 200MA line and its trendline.
2. It is now testing the lower part of the life support trend line. If it breaks it downward, it is going to tank like what the text book says.
3. MACD and OBV all in downtrend. MACD has gone into zero territory.
4. Looks pretty much like "dead-cat bounce" after the head-n-shoulder fall.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY.
2. MACD is in much worst shape, totally under the zero territory.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. This is among the best looking indexes among the three. However, its MACD is also under the zero territory.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP finally broke upward with high volume and now testing the resistance line.
2. Weekly 50MA line is now the resistance line.
3. MACD and OBV are now all on uptrend.
4. Is this going to be bad for stock market?

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Every single sector is doing a retest of its lower part of trendline.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Another pennant for GLD? Another shot up coming in the pipeline?
2. SLV is struggling in a bearish rebound trend.
3. USO is expected to retest of its lower support line.
4. UNG is struggling within its triangle formation and also facing resistance from the trendline from month of March. Not expecting it to go much higher.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is just too near to the line where it previously collapsed at Sept 0f 2008. Is this the repeat of the financial crisis?
2. There is totally no MA line support anymore.
3. MACD has been below zero line for months since the beginning of year.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. This is just too interesting. What is going on? This should actually mark the beginning of a Bull market. So question is how far the Big Bull is from us?