6th Sept 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Long term (1 month)

-- All 3 indexes weekly chart shows facing resistance at trendline. It makes the short term bounce looks like "dead cat bounce". -- Short term uptrend for all 3 indexes are still intact, but once the MA line and resistance line are broken, it can be real BIG trouble. -- Short term uptrend for all sectors are still intact. -- Baltic Dry Index is getting higher again. Something interesting to take note.

-- All 3 indexes weekly chart plus FXI weekly chart shows that we are still in a Bear market. -- There is no more blocking MA line for VXX anymore. -- UUP is trying to get higher. -- If all 3 indexes broken down from MA line and trend line support in their daily chart, we are going down hard.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not much data except Thursday.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Predicted this coming in last week analysis, but again I was not paying attention to it.
2. It bounced right on the 20MA line and create havoc on Friday.
3. Costly mistake, else could have pocket more $$$ on my trades.
4. Looks like there is no MA lines is blocking the advancement of VXX anymore.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Big drop (2.55%) but only less than average volume. This is weird.
2. Daily chart shows that short term it still has the 20MA line and trend line as support.
3. Weekly chart shows that it has bounced into the resistance trend line even though it still has the 200MA line as support.
4. Now is a matter to observe how it behaves at the resistance line. Another failure through the 200MA line will really mean BIG disastrous trouble.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY, DJIA weekly chart shows trouble.
2. All these make the short term bounce looks like "dead cat bounce".

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY and DJIA

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP is still struggling inside the weekly triangle formation in the weekly chart.
2. Daily chart shows that MACD is moving up through the zero line already and the price is trying to break upward through the 50MA line.
3. This might be bad for stock, but will that mean a bad news for GLD? The relationship between UUP, stock market and GLD is getting harder and harder to correlate especially now everyone is expecting a QE3 in the pipeline.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. It is clearly seen that all sectors actually gapped down, however the short term uptrend for all of them are still intact.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. A gap up of GLD. Could this be the isolation pattern? Watch closely. The volume is below average, this increase the chances of isolation island pattern.
2. SLV behaves just like GLD. Potential isolation island.
3. USO is sitting on the daily 20MA line and the trend line.
4. UNG chart is not shown here, but it is not pretty either.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is still weak. MACD digging deeper.
2. It is still below all MA lines.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. This is not something that we should take lightly anymore. Something is going on here.
2. It is time to check out the shipping stocks and see what is coming in the pipeline.