12th Dec 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Notes
	-- GLD and SLV charts have started to shows strong possibility of downtrend. What is that going to mean to the market? -- All 3 indexes are still healthy with NASDAQ lagging behind. -- All sectors are now hitting at the top limit lines. Retracement is highly expected. -- Shipping index is still on its uptrend. -- UNG is going straight to hell.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term SPY chart is pretty bullish. Price remain above the 20MA line and the trend line.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Heavy data week. Retail Sales, CPI and PPI all in. Volatility will be pretty high at end of week.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily VXX chart shows a Bearish candle breaking down the 100MA line again. Expect it to retest the support line at around 36.00. Watch out for strong rebound.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily SPY chart shows that the price has came all the way back up to retest the 200MA line and trend line. A very bullish act. However, please expect a short term retracement before the next leg up.
2. Daily chart shows that the next support is at 123.00 with 20MA and 50MA lines.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily DJIA chart shows that it has strong support from its 200MA line.
2. Weekly chart shows that support is at 50MA line.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. NASDAQ is the only index that is lagging behind of all 3 indexes.
2. Daily NASDAQ chart shows that it is facing resistance from 200MA line.
3. Weekly chart facing resistance from 50MA line.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP uptrend is still intact, this is not a very good news for equity.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. As the charts showed, many sectors have hit the top limit. Correction is highly expected.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. JJC is dropping back to its 20MA and 50MA support lines.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD and SLV downtrend looks like just got started.

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. USO is resting on its 200MA support line.
2. Way to go…. UNG!!!

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI daily chart still face resistance from its trend line and 20MA and 100MA lines.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Baltic shipping index is pretty encouraging.