21st May 2012 – Engineering Week & Going Home.

The Engineering Week in the plant that I am currently working is “almost” finish. This activity has taken a lot of my time.

However, I am going back hometown next week. I don’t expect myself trading before my return from home town.

13th May 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- Quite a number of economy data in the pipeline next week. -- Daily VXX chart value still staying just on top of 20MA line. Secondary indicators also started pointing up. -- Weekly VXX 50MA line has flatten and its MACD is about to do a bullish cross. This can be bad for the bull. -- Copper is weak. Coming down to its second level of support. -- GLD and SLV has finally broke down from their triangle formation and trend line. Now reach their monthly chart support line. -- All 3 indexes now bouncing on their daily 100MA lines. -- All 3 indexes daily charts seems to indicate a break at the head-n-shoulder neckline. -- All sectors have broken their support lines, except the utility sector. This is the pattern in bear market, isn't it? -- FXI continue to be weak. -- Shipment index remain positive. -- UUP chart has broken upwards. -- Expect a temporary one week rebound at indexes daily 100MA lines.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. We have to treat the recent downturn as a correction so far. It has not breach the monthly 20MA line. However, the impact is pretty bad.

2. The value is also lower than its previous high in April 2011 which is not a good indication.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Quite a number of data coming out next week. Happy roller coaster!

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. MACD in weekly chart shows that it has potential to move up than down.

2. Weekly 50MA line is flattening.

3. Daily VXX chart shows that the price is able to stay within the 20MA line for the entire week. Secondary indicators are also starting to point upwards. This is going to be bad for stock market.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY value has broke down 20MA, 50MA lines and now bouncing on the 100MA line.

2. Its daily 20MA line is bearish crossing 50MA line.
3. All secondary indicators are daily SPY chart pointing downward.

4. Head-n-Shoulder neckline broken.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY, recent drop in market can only be considered as a correction in the monthly DJIA chart. 20MA line is still intact.
2. From daily chart, the support line is still intact. However, value has dropped below daily 20MA, 50MA and 100MA lines. All secondary indicators are also continuously pointing downward.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Head-n-Shoulder neckline at daily chart is broken. Value broke down from its daily 20MA and 50MA lines and is bouncing on 100MAline.

2. Monthly NASDAQ chart shows that value has come to the support line.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Monthly UUP chart shows that UUP finally broke upward.
2. Daily UUP chart shows that it penetrated the resistance of 20MA, 50MA and 100MA lines resistance in a short week.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. As shown, almost all sectors have broken down from their trend line, except the utility.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Copper is still weak. Now coming down to its second support line.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly GLD chart looks weak. It broke the triangle formation finally and it is going down. All secondary indicators are pointing downward.
2. However, monthly chart indicates that GLD price has came down and touch the monthly 20MA line for the first time after almost 3 years. MACD has came out with a bearish cross.
3. Similar to GLD, SLV has came down to the next support line.

4. Expecting to see temporary rebound on both GLD and SLV is market allows.    ;-)

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. USO price tanked.

2. Who knows! Just when petrol price went down, natural gas suddenly went up. Price went up daily 20MA and 50MA lines in short two weeks time.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is getting weaker and weaker.
2. This is bad for US stock market too.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Shipping index is still very healthy. However, shipping stocks tank like a big rock.

7th May 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- Daily charts for all 3 indexes are showing short term weakness. Should expect at least short term correction. Long term trend is still healthy. -- GLD and SLV seems to indicate downturn already. -- FXI is still weak, price still not able to overtake its resistance line. -- USO suddenly got hit and price fall below its monthly 20MA line. -- UNG shows some color this time. -- Copper has shown weakness again. -- Baltic index is still improving, but many shipping stocks are making correction from their previous big rally. -- Almost all sectors are falling out of its trend line or its 50MA lines. -- VXX completed its double bottom. Quite dangerous for stock market.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. For entire April month, SPY is not able to break out the March high.

2. Long term wise, SPY is still healthy.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not much data in the pipeline at all for the entire next week.

2. All index technical charts should follow what it is suppose to do.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily VXX chart indicating that it has completed a double bottom formation which is bearish for the stock market.

2. Its 20MA line is still its resistance line.

3. All secondary indicators are starting to show strength.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Value of SPY has dropped below both its daily 20MA and 50MA lines. Value now sitting on the neckline support line.

2. All secondary indicators are not doing very well, pointing South.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term wish, DJIA is still healthy.

2. Weekly chart shows that it will most probably drop to its weekly 20MA support line again.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term wise, NASDAQ is still healthy.

2. Weekly and daily chart indicate that it has pretty high chances of dropping to 2900.
3. All secondary indicators are going South.
4. Value has dropped below its daily 20MA and 50MA again and now sitting on the neckline support line.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP movement is still stuck between its triangle formation. Uptrend is still intact. However, all secondary indicators are showing weakness.
2. Be careful, UUP movement is going to affect my intention to short GLD and SLV.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Almost all sectors are falling out of its trend line or its 50MA lines.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Copper has again show weakness. Price has dropped below trend line and its weekly 20MA line again. All secondary indicators are not making much improvement too.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. All the secondary indictors for GLD in the weekly and monthly charts are showing more and more downward movement.

2. SLV weekly chart has again dropped through its support trend line at $29.00 and also its weekly 100MA line. All secondary indicators are also moving more and more downward.

3. It is time to short GLD and SLV. Watch out for a good entry.

4. However, watch out for UUP movement.

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Natural gas has shown some color this time. I was late to catch it.

2. Price has again punched through the 20MA line, but face resistance from 50MA line.

3. Watch closely and look for good entry.

4. USO has dropped below its long term monthly 20MA line.

5. USO intraday chart shows a pretty drastic drop.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI shows that it has not been able to take out the resistance line.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Shipment index is still going up. Impressive!

2. Be careful, many shipment stocks actually making correction.

6th May 2012 – RENN take the spotlight before FB.

Buy $	Sell $	Short $	Cover $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
6.46				5.90

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Short / Cover:

 

1. Price made a double bottom at the intraday chart at $6.00 and start to rebound from there.

2. Set the buy limit somewhere just above intraday 20MA line and got it.

3. Daily chart shows that it seems to have support coming from its 20MA line and Fibonacci indicators indicating the price has rebound from 76.4% to 61.80%.
4. Weekly chart shows that all secondary indicators are pointing upwards. Price is also staying above its weekly 50MA line.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. As I posted previously, this is what I called as the "China Cup and Handle" formation. If price break up through the previous high of $7.20, this stock is going to fly high.

2. Watch out for chance to top up.
3. RENN will release quarter result on 14th May.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart