BULL or BEAR ??
| Short term (1 week) | Notes |
|
| -- Quite a number of economy data in the pipeline next week. -- Daily VXX chart value still staying just on top of 20MA line. Secondary indicators also started pointing up. -- Weekly VXX 50MA line has flatten and its MACD is about to do a bullish cross. This can be bad for the bull. -- Copper is weak. Coming down to its second level of support. -- GLD and SLV has finally broke down from their triangle formation and trend line. Now reach their monthly chart support line. -- All 3 indexes now bouncing on their daily 100MA lines. -- All 3 indexes daily charts seems to indicate a break at the head-n-shoulder neckline. -- All sectors have broken their support lines, except the utility sector. This is the pattern in bear market, isn't it? -- FXI continue to be weak. -- Shipment index remain positive. -- UUP chart has broken upwards. -- Expect a temporary one week rebound at indexes daily 100MA lines. |
SPY (30 years monthly) chart:
Input:
- We have to treat the recent downturn as a correction so far. It has not breach the monthly 20MA line. However, the impact is pretty bad.
- The value is also lower than its previous high in April 2011 which is not a good indication.
Next Week Economic Data (1 week):
Input:
- Quite a number of data coming out next week. Happy roller coaster!
VXX chart:
Input:
- MACD in weekly chart shows that it has potential to move up than down.
- Weekly 50MA line is flattening.
- Daily VXX chart shows that the price is able to stay within the 20MA line for the entire week. Secondary indicators are also starting to point upwards. This is going to be bad for stock market.
SPY chart:
Input:
- SPY value has broke down 20MA, 50MA lines and now bouncing on the 100MA line.
- Its daily 20MA line is bearish crossing 50MA line.
- All secondary indicators are daily SPY chart pointing downward.
- Head-n-Shoulder neckline broken.
DJIA chart:
Input:
- Similar to SPY, recent drop in market can only be considered as a correction in the monthly DJIA chart. 20MA line is still intact.
- From daily chart, the support line is still intact. However, value has dropped below daily 20MA, 50MA and 100MA lines. All secondary indicators are also continuously pointing downward.
NASDAQ chart:
Input:
- Head-n-Shoulder neckline at daily chart is broken. Value broke down from its daily 20MA and 50MA lines and is bouncing on 100MAline.
- Monthly NASDAQ chart shows that value has come to the support line.
UUP chart:
Input:
- Monthly UUP chart shows that UUP finally broke upward.
- Daily UUP chart shows that it penetrated the resistance of 20MA, 50MA and 100MA lines resistance in a short week.
Sector Analysis:
Input:
- As shown, almost all sectors have broken down from their trend line, except the utility.
Copper JJC chart:
Input:
- Copper is still weak. Now coming down to its second support line.
GLD and SLV charts:
Input:
- Weekly GLD chart looks weak. It broke the triangle formation finally and it is going down. All secondary indicators are pointing downward.
- However, monthly chart indicates that GLD price has came down and touch the monthly 20MA line for the first time after almost 3 years. MACD has came out with a bearish cross.
- Similar to GLD, SLV has came down to the next support line.
- Expecting to see temporary rebound on both GLD and SLV is market allows. ;-)
Petrol and Natural Gas charts:
Input:
- USO price tanked.
- Who knows! Just when petrol price went down, natural gas suddenly went up. Price went up daily 20MA and 50MA lines in short two weeks time.
FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:
Input:
- FXI is getting weaker and weaker.
- This is bad for US stock market too.
Baltic Dry Index chart:
Input:
- Shipping index is still very healthy. However, shipping stocks tank like a big rock.
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