12th Sept 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (1 month)
-- All those Europe issues had never gone away. -- Market Watch is expecting the retail sales figure to be "not so good". -- VXX chart completed it cup with handle formation. -- UUP gap up with good volume. -- All sector charts show testing of lower part of supporting trend line. -- GLD shows another scary pennant formation, another move higher??	-- All indexes are showing dead-cat bounce formation. MACD all dipped into below zero territory. -- FXI is going to test its strongest support line. -- The only bullish indictor is the Baltic only. -- UNG and USO are testing lower part of trend line.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not much data except Wed and Thursday.
2. Market Watch did not put in nice hope for the retail sales figure.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. VXX broken its previous high of mid August.
2. It looks like completed the forming a cup with handle. This is really bad news for the stock market.
3. Volumes are there. OBV spike high. MACD remains high and is about to do another bullish cross.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The only support left is the weekly 200MA line and its trendline.
2. It is now testing the lower part of the life support trend line. If it breaks it downward, it is going to tank like what the text book says.
3. MACD and OBV all in downtrend. MACD has gone into zero territory.
4. Looks pretty much like "dead-cat bounce" after the head-n-shoulder fall.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY.
2. MACD is in much worst shape, totally under the zero territory.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. This is among the best looking indexes among the three. However, its MACD is also under the zero territory.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP finally broke upward with high volume and now testing the resistance line.
2. Weekly 50MA line is now the resistance line.
3. MACD and OBV are now all on uptrend.
4. Is this going to be bad for stock market?

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Every single sector is doing a retest of its lower part of trendline.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Another pennant for GLD? Another shot up coming in the pipeline?
2. SLV is struggling in a bearish rebound trend.
3. USO is expected to retest of its lower support line.
4. UNG is struggling within its triangle formation and also facing resistance from the trendline from month of March. Not expecting it to go much higher.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is just too near to the line where it previously collapsed at Sept 0f 2008. Is this the repeat of the financial crisis?
2. There is totally no MA line support anymore.
3. MACD has been below zero line for months since the beginning of year.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. This is just too interesting. What is going on? This should actually mark the beginning of a Bull market. So question is how far the Big Bull is from us?

11th Sept 2011–Pattern Study–Volume does matter!

Ticker:

 

1. SIFY

 

Topic:

 

1. Volume does matter !
2. My good friend ask me one question on Friday on Skype, "did you check the volume when you trade?"

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. This is a 1 year chart. Each candle represent 2 days.
2. At point 1, price burst through the 20MA line with high volume. This high volume is not obvious in this chart. You need to squeeze the chart to the left side in order to see that.
3. At point 2, price continue to burst through the rest of the MA lines with much higher volume. It is a determination that trader are going in big time. Price continue to go up after that.
4. As usual, if you missed out the rally, stay cool. Be patient. Within 2 months, the price start to cool down slowly. It tried to recover when it came back to 20MA line, however, it failed. From there price started to go down again.
5. In mid of Nov 2010, price start to rest on the MA lines again.
6. Just before the end of the Nov, price started to burst up again, however, there is no high volume that follows. Price fluctuate around the 20MA line and not able to make higher high.
7. At point 3 and point 4, high volume came in. Price finally broke the high of Nov month.
8. Yet after making higher high compare to the high at end of Sept month, the price started to cool down again. This time the waiting time for the next entry is shorter --- 1 month.
9. When price came back to the 20MA line again at point 5, another volume that is larger than average came back in. A retest of the 20MA line and that is it. The price started to burst all the way up. More and more volume started to come in starting from point 6.
10. Just before the end of April, a bearish engulfing occurred with high volume. A sign to throw in your towel.
11. At point 7, another high volume came back in to reverse the down trend. However, price could not maintain and start to drop further. In this case, stop loss might be able to get you out.
12. For the month of June, July and August, the reaction has shown that the bottom might be at $4.00. Pay attention that the volume has started to reside very nicely since the start of August. Aren't this is what the traders are looking for?     ;-)

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

8th Sept 2011–Pattern Study– Crash & Dead-cat Bounce ??!!

Ticker:

 

1. SPY

 

Topic:

 

1. Can the Head-n-Shoulder crash at the start of Aug be actually predicted?!
2. Is it a dead-cat bounce now?

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. The daily MACD and OBV in the daily SPY chart on 9th July 2011 has shown downturn is coming.
2. 9th July was the top of the right shoulder.
3. We are definitely not out of the wood yet.
4. Why I did not see it???:
1. I did not pay enough attention to MACD and OBV on the daily SPY chart.
2. I was not willing to accept that bear has stepped in when SPY crashed from the head-n-shoulder formation.

5. Comparing the 2 charts now, it looks like we are having some kind of dead-cat bounce.
6. Yes! The Crash has been warned!

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

6th Sept 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Long term (1 month)

-- All 3 indexes weekly chart shows facing resistance at trendline. It makes the short term bounce looks like "dead cat bounce". -- Short term uptrend for all 3 indexes are still intact, but once the MA line and resistance line are broken, it can be real BIG trouble. -- Short term uptrend for all sectors are still intact. -- Baltic Dry Index is getting higher again. Something interesting to take note.

-- All 3 indexes weekly chart plus FXI weekly chart shows that we are still in a Bear market. -- There is no more blocking MA line for VXX anymore. -- UUP is trying to get higher. -- If all 3 indexes broken down from MA line and trend line support in their daily chart, we are going down hard.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not much data except Thursday.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Predicted this coming in last week analysis, but again I was not paying attention to it.
2. It bounced right on the 20MA line and create havoc on Friday.
3. Costly mistake, else could have pocket more $$$ on my trades.
4. Looks like there is no MA lines is blocking the advancement of VXX anymore.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Big drop (2.55%) but only less than average volume. This is weird.
2. Daily chart shows that short term it still has the 20MA line and trend line as support.
3. Weekly chart shows that it has bounced into the resistance trend line even though it still has the 200MA line as support.
4. Now is a matter to observe how it behaves at the resistance line. Another failure through the 200MA line will really mean BIG disastrous trouble.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY, DJIA weekly chart shows trouble.
2. All these make the short term bounce looks like "dead cat bounce".

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY and DJIA

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP is still struggling inside the weekly triangle formation in the weekly chart.
2. Daily chart shows that MACD is moving up through the zero line already and the price is trying to break upward through the 50MA line.
3. This might be bad for stock, but will that mean a bad news for GLD? The relationship between UUP, stock market and GLD is getting harder and harder to correlate especially now everyone is expecting a QE3 in the pipeline.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. It is clearly seen that all sectors actually gapped down, however the short term uptrend for all of them are still intact.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. A gap up of GLD. Could this be the isolation pattern? Watch closely. The volume is below average, this increase the chances of isolation island pattern.
2. SLV behaves just like GLD. Potential isolation island.
3. USO is sitting on the daily 20MA line and the trend line.
4. UNG chart is not shown here, but it is not pretty either.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is still weak. MACD digging deeper.
2. It is still below all MA lines.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. This is not something that we should take lightly anymore. Something is going on here.
2. It is time to check out the shipping stocks and see what is coming in the pipeline.

3rd Sept 2011–Those people really know when to pick the time to sue the banks, right when I am in there.

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	28.30				Profit	10 days

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. US is sue all the 17 big banks for misconduct. Market before open already falling badly especially banks.
2. Big profit gone with the wind in such a high speed.
3. Take my profit and come back later.        ;-)

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Have to be more aggressive in protecting profit during bear market. Stop loss have to be adjusted close to avoid such a gap before market.
2. Stock like C, BAC, GS, GOOG, you might not have to sell the stock so urgently. It tends to bounce back in the next half an hr. Sell then might get a bit of profit back.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

2nd Sept 2011–I will be back on Feb 2012, DOW!

Let us check back on Feb 2012 to see how true it can be.    

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-13600-here-we-come-2011-09-02?link=home_carousel

02nd Sept 2011–Dance with Dow Jones.

Ticker:

 

1. DJIA

 

Topic:

 

1. Is DJIA sick?!

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Intraday shows that it is still healthy.
2. Daily chart shows that it has 2 big resistance lines to take care of. The 1st line actually taken but it retreat and stay there. 2nd resistance line also been touched. This is a bullish sign at least for now.
3. Anyway, it is facing curving 20MA and 50MA lines coming down to it in just one or two weeks time.

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

02nd Sept 2011–Shorting the real GOLD

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
		104.00

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Intraday shows that it just came out of the small triangle formation and is heading South.
2. Price is below both intraday 20MA and 50MA lines.
3. Intraday 20MA and 50MA lines looks like going to do a bearish cross.
4. Daily chart shows that 20MA line is broken even though the uptrend still intact.
5. GLD chart also shows weakness. Patterns are so similar.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. If the short is successful, the next one to short will be GLD.
2. Monitor GLD movement closely. This can be a tough short, but I think the time is kind of right already.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart