07th Nov 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Notes
	-- All three indexes are still showing Bull's signature. -- Europe problem seems like an opportunity for buying. Just some funny easing policy is cheer by market. -- All sectors reached resistance line and do minor correction. -- UUP uptrend is facing challenges.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY 30 year chart still stay healthy.
2. Value is still above the 20MA line and the support trend line.
3. We still have to accept that bulls are still in control.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Not much data report for the week. The news will be basically all those Europe debt news.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Both daily and weekly VXX charts show that it still has support from 18MA line.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily SPY still has support from 123MA and 18MA lines.
2. Bull still has the control.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY, daily DJIA has strong support from 18MA and 123MA lines.
2. Golden cross is forming for 18MA and 123MA line.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY and DJIA, strong support from both 18MA and 123MA lines.
2. Golden cross for 18MA and 123MA lines completed.
3. Bull has the upper hand.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP uptrend is weak but not completely dead yet.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. All sectors touched their resistance lines and now in minor correction mode.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. JJC chart facing resistance at 47MA line.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD is tremendously strong. Looks like some kind of easing policy is going to implement for the Europe problem.
2. SLV is following GLD's move, but facing resistance at 47MA line.

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

Input:

 

1. USO facing resistance at trendline.UNG is again doing its all time low multiple bottom again. Anyone dare to go near?

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is facing resistance at 123MA but still has support from 76MA line.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Shipping turn South suddenly. A very sudden and interesting turn. What does it mean to the market?

05th Nov 2011–We sell GoLD !

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
16.10				15.10

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Daily chart shows that GLL hit the bottom part of trend line.
2. Daily chart of GLD shows that it hit on the upper part of trend line.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Entry point sucks. I should have know that GLD is still strong and I should have waited for my entry patiently.
2. This is quite a dangerous take.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

05th Nov 2011–JaVA coffee… anyone?!

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
10.10				9.44

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Intraday chart shows that it has started to break the down trend line and try to go higher, but came back down and do multiple bottom at around $9.50 to $10.00.
2. Daily chart shows that it has just started broken the long 4 months downtrend line.
3. Daily chart also shows some kind of very nice U shape cup with handle.
4. Daily chart also shows that price seems to find support at Fibonacci level of 61.8%.
5. Long term weekly chart also shows that it seems to find support at 47MA line.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. I did the 1st purchase (40% of total ) at $10.00. Immediately after purchase, price shot up quickly.
2. I set another purchase (60% of total) at $10.10. The price was captured about an hour later.
3. Things to watch out for is daily chart shows that it is still below all MA lines and weekly chart MACD is still not pretty.
4. Daily volume went up above average on second day of purchase which is good sign.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

03rd Nov 2011–A stupid stop loss cost me GoLD.

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	164.00

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Stop loss triggered immediately after the market opened.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. This is a very stupid stop loss point that I have set. I should know better. 50% of profit gone just because of a careless stop loss strategy.
2. It bounce all the way back in just two quick days. Amazing Gold!!!
3. This is the adding point, NOT the stop loss point.
4. Now the problem is how to get it back.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

01st Nov–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Notes
	-- Watch out for SPY resistance level at around 131.00. -- VXX coming to the next support line at 33. -- A correction is expected.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Unbelievable! It has completely overtaken the 20MA line. Maybe history is not going to repeat itself this time.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. FOMC on Wednesday. Correction is expected at least on Tuesday.
2. Jobless and employment on Thursday and Friday. Expect volatility.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Support at current level is important for the Bear.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Daily SPY chart shows that it is reaching a correction point.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly chart of NASDAQ shows that correction is due.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP has reached a strong support line for the Bear to roar again.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Many sectors hitting on resistance trend line.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Copper approaching resistance line at $50.00

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD and SLV are expected to have minor correction.

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. USO approaching strong resistance at around $37.00.
2. UNG looks like trying to form a bottom "again".

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similarly, FXI is bullish.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. No sign of retreat from shipment index. Expect it to continue its uptrend.

1st Nov 2011–Autozone on fire sales!

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
		327.50

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Sell Short / Buy Back:

 

1. Earning was out, stock tried to move higher but was slammed down.
2. All 3 indexes have advanced big time, but AZO stock is not moving anywhere. Every time (3 times in fact) it tried to move higher (around $332.50), it got slammed down.
3. Long term weekly chart shows that price has came down from the long term uptrend line.
4. Intraday shows weakness yesterday when index gapped down before open.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Have shorted this stock before and failed. Be careful, no matter what it is still a strong stock.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart