27th June 2012 – It is time for 2 ‘shorts’, AN-V me?

Buy $	Sell $	Short $	Cover $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
		27.50 Avg = 27.22		30.96

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Short / Cover:

 

1. From the weekly chart, it shows that price came up all the way and get into the upper part of downtrend resistance line and then get sold off again.

2. Intraday chart also shows weakness and price is now bar by the 20MA line.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. This short is not going to be easy.
2. When the price came up to @30.00, I was actually thinking of adding to my short at that time, but did not obey the rule and short it there. What a waste. Again, this show my weakness in making trade.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

27th June 2012 – Flex-C-bility ?!

Buy $	Sell $	Short $	Cover $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	27.12				Even	1 month

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Short / Cover:

 

1. Price gapped down and gapped down below its daily 20MA line. All my profit was gone.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Europe issues kept popping up and disrupt the market moves.

2. I have not been working hard enough in the stock market recently. It is good to let go this one at even first. Will come back and haunt it again later.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

25th June 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- It is interesting that market actually went crazy when I was not doing my homework for a month. -- China FXI is still very weak and might be getting weaker. -- All indexes clearly indicate strong resistance at their weekly 20MA lines and daily 100MA lines. -- VXX is now at a triple bottom situation. Volume is also getting higher. -- USO, GLD and SLV have came down to retest their trend line. Ben's announcement is also not encouraging to the Gold bugs. -- The only weird one is the natural gas UNG. It has poke up through its weekly 20MA line again. This could well be a buy signal. -- Thursday's jobless claim report can be very important to the market has mentioned by Ben the he will be watching job report very closely. -- UUP has retest its upper part of trendline and retraced temporary, -- Shipment index is again pointing downward. -- Most sectors are showing mid term downtrend is still intact. -- Expect the indexes to rebound back to maybe their daily chart 50MA line before another big drop.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Monthly chart shows that its 20MA line has been threaten once. Price rebound back above the 20MA line but not much.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Thursday data will be crucial.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly VXX chart is again all time low and came out with a triple bottom. This is dangerous.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Looking at the weekly and daily chart of SPY, one should not be surprised with the big drop on Thursday. Were you?      ;-)

2. A big resistance of 20MA line in the weekly chart and 100MA line in the daily chart has warned us very well.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY. Just that DJIA is slightly stronger and gave you an illusion that its daily chart's 100MA line has been taken over.

2. However, weekly chart has warned you that there is a big resistance line from the May'11 high.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY and DJIA, but NASDAQ is much weaker among thee three.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP might have started to establish a reverse of its downtrend.

2. Price has successful go above the monthly 20MA line. Will see how it comes back to the 20MA line.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Most sectors are still staying within the mid term downtrend with strong resistance from their 50MA lines.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Copper's downtrend continues. Price has again came down to test its trend line.

2. Monthly MACD is still pointing more downward potential is building up.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD has again broke down its monthly 20MA line. Monthly GLD chart shows that all secondary indicators are all going downward and weak.
2. SLV is even weaker. Came out with a multiple bottom. All secondary indicators are pointing more downward potential.

 

Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. USO is very weak too. A three year multiple bottom chart is now in front of us. Price is also below its monthly 20MA line.
2. UNG is the only one that is indicating something else. Good volume has started to come in and price has broken through the weekly 20MA line twice. A W bottom shape seems to be in the making.
3. UNG can be a very good long candidate.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. China is only showing more weakness. All secondary indicators continue their downward moves.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Shipment has again dropped below trend line and its 20MA line.

21st May 2012 – Engineering Week & Going Home.

The Engineering Week in the plant that I am currently working is “almost” finish. This activity has taken a lot of my time.

However, I am going back hometown next week. I don’t expect myself trading before my return from home town.

13th May 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- Quite a number of economy data in the pipeline next week. -- Daily VXX chart value still staying just on top of 20MA line. Secondary indicators also started pointing up. -- Weekly VXX 50MA line has flatten and its MACD is about to do a bullish cross. This can be bad for the bull. -- Copper is weak. Coming down to its second level of support. -- GLD and SLV has finally broke down from their triangle formation and trend line. Now reach their monthly chart support line. -- All 3 indexes now bouncing on their daily 100MA lines. -- All 3 indexes daily charts seems to indicate a break at the head-n-shoulder neckline. -- All sectors have broken their support lines, except the utility sector. This is the pattern in bear market, isn't it? -- FXI continue to be weak. -- Shipment index remain positive. -- UUP chart has broken upwards. -- Expect a temporary one week rebound at indexes daily 100MA lines.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. We have to treat the recent downturn as a correction so far. It has not breach the monthly 20MA line. However, the impact is pretty bad.

2. The value is also lower than its previous high in April 2011 which is not a good indication.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. Quite a number of data coming out next week. Happy roller coaster!

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. MACD in weekly chart shows that it has potential to move up than down.

2. Weekly 50MA line is flattening.

3. Daily VXX chart shows that the price is able to stay within the 20MA line for the entire week. Secondary indicators are also starting to point upwards. This is going to be bad for stock market.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY value has broke down 20MA, 50MA lines and now bouncing on the 100MA line.

2. Its daily 20MA line is bearish crossing 50MA line.
3. All secondary indicators are daily SPY chart pointing downward.

4. Head-n-Shoulder neckline broken.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY, recent drop in market can only be considered as a correction in the monthly DJIA chart. 20MA line is still intact.
2. From daily chart, the support line is still intact. However, value has dropped below daily 20MA, 50MA and 100MA lines. All secondary indicators are also continuously pointing downward.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Head-n-Shoulder neckline at daily chart is broken. Value broke down from its daily 20MA and 50MA lines and is bouncing on 100MAline.

2. Monthly NASDAQ chart shows that value has come to the support line.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Monthly UUP chart shows that UUP finally broke upward.
2. Daily UUP chart shows that it penetrated the resistance of 20MA, 50MA and 100MA lines resistance in a short week.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. As shown, almost all sectors have broken down from their trend line, except the utility.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Copper is still weak. Now coming down to its second support line.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly GLD chart looks weak. It broke the triangle formation finally and it is going down. All secondary indicators are pointing downward.
2. However, monthly chart indicates that GLD price has came down and touch the monthly 20MA line for the first time after almost 3 years. MACD has came out with a bearish cross.
3. Similar to GLD, SLV has came down to the next support line.

4. Expecting to see temporary rebound on both GLD and SLV is market allows.    ;-)

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. USO price tanked.

2. Who knows! Just when petrol price went down, natural gas suddenly went up. Price went up daily 20MA and 50MA lines in short two weeks time.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. FXI is getting weaker and weaker.
2. This is bad for US stock market too.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Shipping index is still very healthy. However, shipping stocks tank like a big rock.