27th April 2012 – Pattern Study – AH! That hurts.

Ticker:

 

1. AH

 

Topic:

 

1. The longer you HOPE, the more HOPELESS you are!

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. When it is time to accept the fact, take it, don't think! Else it really hurts.

 

Intraday Chart

-NA-

Historical Chart

25th April 2012 – AVGO… back in business?

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
			34.50		Profit	6 Days

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Short / Cover:

 

1. My stop loss point at $34.50 triggered.
2. Market rally just because AAPL quarter report is much better than expected. AVGO also follow the rally and gave a rebound.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. I was actually thinking of cover @ $32.80, but I was greedy and expect it to drop further to $32.00 which is the next support trend line.
2. I was also thinking of how to add my short in this ticker.
3. Anyway, this stock is still a good short candidate, will come back later.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

24th April 2012 – When you kill Q(kill) Q(kill) Q(kill), you go in fast, you come out quick!

Buy $	Sell $	Sell Short $	Buy Back $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
	11.90				Profit	3 days

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Short / Cover:

 

1. AAPL is going to release its quarter report tonight. I am not going to try going against it. AAPL constitute a big portion of QQQ.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. I might miss the chance to earn BIG, but I don't think I can take the risk to fight against AAPL quarter report.
2. If AAPL report is bad and the technology sank, I am not sure how to get in to this SQQQ.     ;-)

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

24th April 2012 – Burning sensation of AZO pain relief.

Buy $	Sell $	Short $	Cover $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
			381.90		Even	One day

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Short / Cover:

 

1. Decided to cover after seeing a strong move upward even though the market is going down to protect my capital.
2. AAPL is going to report quarter on Tuesday, result is most probably on the +ve side and that can drive the market up easily. Hence it will not be good for  this short.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. My decision at late night was worth every single cents. Price gapped up more than 3% before market today.
2. It is WRONG to pick this stock to short in the first place. Patient, time will come.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart

22nd April 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- There are just too many data for the market to handle next week. -- All index daily chart started to broke down from its 20MA and 50MA lines. -- Both SPY and DJIA daily charts seems to show the formation of Head-n-Shoulder. -- AAPL stock was hit, creating quite an impact to the market too. -- FXI is rebounding, but price still remain below the monthly 20MA line. -- Copper is still weak. -- GLD and SLV looks weak and could be a candidate for short next week. -- USO is also getting weaker. -- Most sectors have indicate the establishment of downtrend. -- VXX is still circling at its multiple low. -- UUP is right at the tip of its monthly chart. -- More and more articles on MarketWatch are indicating bearishness.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY might indicate the end of wave 5. If that is the case, we are going down ---" This is Captain speaking, please kindly tighten your seat belt."

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. No wonder the stock market is so volatile, there are just too many data to be digested next week.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Monthly VXX chart shows that it is sitting on the multiple bottom trend line.
2. Weekly VXX chart shows that it is resting on the downtrend line.
3. Daily VXX chart shows that the price has dropped slightly below the 20MA line. However, all secondary indicators are pointing upward.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly SPY chart shows that it resting on the previous May 2011 high. However, uptrend line is obviously broken but still maintain above 20MA line.
2. Daily SPY chart shows its 20MA line started to curve down. Price has broken down not just the 20MA line, but also 50MA line.
3. All secondary indicators in the daily SPY chart are pointing downward.
4. A possible top of Head-n-Shoulder could be forming at the top of daily SPY chart with the neck line around 136.00

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Its monthly chart is similar to SPY chart.
2. Its weekly chart is also similar to SPY chart except that it is stronger; however, its MACD is starting to do the bearish cross.
3. Similar to SPY,  all the secondary indicators of DJIA are pointing downward. A possible Head-n-Shoulder at around 12,700.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Looks like the damage done by AAPL to NASDAQ is pretty significant.
2. However, it is still the strongest index among the three.
3. No obvious Head-n-Shoulder at the daily NASDAQ chart, except the HEAD part.
4. Price has broken down from 20MA and also 50MA line in the daily chart. It is now resting on the support trend line from the March high.  However, it looks like it can break down anytime now.
5. All secondary indicators of NASDAQ daily chart are pointing South.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. What a fantastic monthly chart for UUP. It is now right at the tip point.
2. It can be seen clearly that price is still struggling inside the ending part of the triangle formation.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. More and more prove of downtrend are starting to emerge for most of the sectors. Even though their main uptrend is still not really broken.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. It is clear that Copper is still showing a lot of weakness.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Looks like it is safe to start calling short for both GLD and SLV.
2. SLV price has fall out of monthly 20MA line. All secondary indicators are all pointing South.
3. GLD price has started to breach the uptrend line. All secondary indicators are also going South.

 

 Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Price still staying above its monthly 20MA line for USO.
2. There is only one single word for UNG ---- UGLY !!!

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Even though FXI has rebounded recently, on the monthly chart it is obvious that the price is still below 20MA line.
2. Weekly and daily FXI charts also show that the price is still controlled by its 50MA line.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Shipping index is showing some strength, interesting!

21st April 2012 – Auto Zone needs a AZO fast relief.

Buy $	Sell $	Short $	Cover $	Stop Loss $	Profit / Losses	Duration
		382.50		392.20

 

Reason for Buy / Sell / Short / Cover:

 

1. Daily chart show that price has gapped up even before earning announcement, but after announcement, price is not advancing but instead slipping downward.

2. Price did come back up to test the previous top, but kept failing.
3. Intraday chart show that it is inside a consolidation phase.

 

Lesson Learnt:

 

1. Market indexes are weak at this point. AAPL stock also got hit.

2. All secondary indicators are daily chart are shouting for SHORT.

3. It still has a support at daily 20MA line.

4. This stock is hard to Short, very similar to AAPL stock.

5. Monthly chart shows that volume has dropped very heavily.

 

Intraday Chart

Historical Chart