14th April 2012 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)

Notes

-- Still bullish, but CAUTIOUS BULLISH. Activity such as buying on dip will have to on-hold for the time being. -- Shipment Baltic index looks healthy. -- Corrections are already underway for all three indexes. Be careful, this correction can turn out to be a bear. Right now, long term wise all three indexes are still healthy. -- VXX has turned back up and now resting on the tips of downtrend and resistance line. -- FXI has rebounded but value remain below its monthly 20MA line. -- USO still sitting on the monthly 20MA line even though is has shown some weakness. -- GLD and SLV are still stuck in the tip of the triangle. However, chances of heading South is getting higher. -- All sectors are still healthy in long run.

 

SPY (30 years monthly) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Are we approaching the end of Elliot Wave 5? If we are, this is not going to be pretty site.

2. Monthly chart shows that we are at least in the correction phase of May 2008 high resistance line.

3. Next strong support line should be at around 130.0 where it will meet up with the monthly 20MA line, that means of about 5% drop from here.

4. Long term uptrend is still intact.

 

Next Week Economic Data (1 week):

 

 

Input:

 

1. More data on Thursday.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly VXX chart shows that it is now at a tipping point of downtrend line and resistance line  with pretty high volume.

2. Daily VXX chart shows that it has its daily 20MA line as support. Volumes are coming in and secondary indicators are all pointing north.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly SPY chart shows that the uptrend line is now broken and it is sitting on the support line from May 2012 high. Volume is below average with secondary indicators pointing south.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Similar to SPY, monthly DJIA chart is facing resistance from the May 2008. Long term uptrend is still intact but correction is already underway.

2. Weekly DJIA chart indicates that uptrend line is now broken with a support from weekly 20MA line. Weekly volume is way below average.

3. Daily chart indicates that last week drop was pretty bad where 20MA and 50MA lines are all penetrated which now become the resistance lines.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. NASDAQ is still the best index among the three.

2. Monthly chart indicates that its uptrend is still intact.

3. Weekly chart shows the correction underway but with below average volume. Its weekly 20MA line will be its support line.

4. Daily chart shows that its 50MA line will be the next support line.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Monthly UUP chart indicates that it has again break through the monthly 20MA line resistance. Its short term uptrend might still continue.

2. Weekly UUP chart indicates that it is still bound between its uptrend support line and 20MA resistance line.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. The only sectors that show weakness are XLI, XLE and XLU. For the rest, long term uptrend is still intact.

 

Copper JJC  chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Cooper is weak and still below its monthly 20MA line.

 

GLD and SLV charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD's direction remains in the tip of the triangle with more potential to the down side.

2. It has a strong support from its monthly 20MA line.

3. Similar to GLD, SLV is also stuck inside the tip of the triangle. Value has dropped below its monthly 20MA line. More potential to the downside.

 

Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Long term monthly USO chart indicates that its uptrend is still intact. Price remains sitting above its 20MA line.

2. UNG remains as the ugliest downtrend chart. Volume is picking up too.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Monthly FXI index indicates a rebound but value remains below the monthly 20MA line.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Uptrend of Baltic shipping index is still intact.

2. Few shipping stocks such as FREE has rallied.