19th Sept 2010 – My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

Something that I need to clarify here:

• Short term means for 1 week
• Long term means for 6 months
• It is going to be another heavy data week ahead especially on Tuesday night the FOMC interest rate announcement.
• My analysis can be tilted 180 degree by BEN on Tuesday night.

Short term (1 week)	Long term (6 months)

Why do I say so:

1. http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/09/15/The--Outright-Deflation--Economy-Enters-A--Critical-New-Phase-.aspx.
2. http://slopeofhope.com/2010/09/they-can-almost-taste-it.html.
3. This expert is saying that we have a long term BULL market. Better be careful. But he still feel that his claim will only be more true if SP500 broke the barrier of 1130. http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/09/new-long-term-buy-signal.html.

VXX chart:

Input:

1. Long term Renko chart tells me that there might be still downside for VXX. So all my Short positions are not secured yet.
2. Long term OBV and MACD still look Bearish. So be agile when needed.
3. Short term VXX chart looks like going to do Bullish cross with a high volume coming in. Again, still not crossed yet.

SPY chart:

Input:

1. Short term 20MA and 50MA lines are about the do the Bearish Crossing.
2. Short term SPY value is falling below the 50MA line for the first time in the past 2 weeks or so.
3. Short term high volume sell Friday night early in the night.
4. Short term MACD is dipping into the -ve zone.
5. Long term chart is still facing resistance at the 113 line.
6. It is a bit hard to read, but look at the 3Yr 1Wk long term chart, 20MA fall below 50MA line again. Is this a loud and clear SELLLLLL signal?               

DJIA chart:

Input:

1. Not as Bearish as SPY, maybe not yet