22nd May 2011–My Analysis

BULL or BEAR ??

 

Short term (1 week)	Long term (1 month)
-- All indexes are weak. Below 20MA line and testing 50MA line. Monitor closely all indexes weekly chart. -- Many data coming out next week. Can be very volatile. -- UUP is quite bullish recently even though it is still in the down trend in the weekly chart. -- Direction of GLD and SLV is quite confusing now.	-- All ultra short ETF are making higher high. -- No sign of improvement in Baltic dry index.

 

Next Week Economic Data:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Quite a number of reports coming out next week.
2. Should be quite volatile.

 

VXX chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. One thing I just cannot understand. Indexes are getting weaker and weaker, but VXX is making another low. The direction is very confusing.

 

SPY chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. SPY cannot make it through its daily 20MA line and also below the short term trend line. Now it is coming to test the 50MA for the second time.
2. I personally don't like this.
3. Intraday 20MA line continue to be a resistance line.
4. The only encouraging sign is that weekly chart still shows that SPY is still above 20MA line and it does not look like anything bad is coming.

 

DJIA chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. Same like SPY. Only the weekly chart looks acceptable.

 

NASDAQ chart:

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. NASDAQ is even worst. Daily chart tested 100MA line once. Now it is still below 20MA line.
2. Again, only weekly chart looks good. Still above 20MA line and staying above trend line.

 

UUP chart:

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. UUP is quite bullish recently with encouraging volume. However, weekly chart shows that it is still inside the down trend line.
2. Next resistance is at $22.00.

 

Sector Analysis:

 

 

Input:

 

1. XLP, XLU and XLV continue to make wonders.
2. The rest are sitting on the down part of trend line.

 

GLD, SLV, Petrol and Natural Gas charts:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Input:

 

1. GLD came to daily 50MA line support. Double bottom and then the triangle formation setup and shot up from there. Fantastic gold bullion. Now it is right above the daily 20MA line again. It is not easy to short gold, so be very careful.
2. SLV is in a very hard to trade position. Intraday and daily chart seems to shows that bull has the upper hand. Daily chart shows that is has climbed back up to the 100MA line and sits there.
3. Weekly SLV chart shows that the 20MA line continuously act as a resistant line. However, the rally of GLD might help SLV.
4. USO coming to two strong weekly support lines 50MA and 100MA lines.
5. UNG looks extremely bearish. Don't touch it.

 

FXI (iShares FTSE / Xinhua China 25 Index Fund) chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Weekly FXI chart shows that its uptrend still intact even though it si struggling at its 20MA line. It is still above its uptrend line and 50MA line as a support.

 

Baltic Dry Index chart:

 

 

Input:

 

1. Nothing to cheer about (yet).